---
access: pub
create: 2026-10-06 16:46:00
update: 2026-10-06 16:46:00
author: thinkycx
title: "人物采访｜Dario Amodei × 彭博（2026-04-30）：Mythos、战争红线与万亿估值（全访谈・完整版）"
description: 彭博社 The Circuit 专访（2026-04-30 录制、06-17 发布，Emily Chang 主持）Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 完整版：谈离开 OpenAI 的真相、Mythos 网络超级模型为何不发布、AI 战争红线、初级白领岗位 50% 消失的就业预警，以及"一年 10 倍"指数如何压倒一切产品直觉。
category: tech
tags: [life, video-summary, bilibili, 人物采访]
keywords: [Dario Amodei, Anthropic, Mythos, Claude, AI 安全, AI 就业, SaaS, AI 军事应用, 彭博社专访]
refs:
  - https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1a5Y36MEWM
  - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2VHFgyawPE
  - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-17/inside-the-mind-of-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-video
---

# 人物采访｜Dario Amodei × 彭博（2026-04-30）：Mythos、战争红线与万亿估值（全访谈・完整版）

## 一、背景

**访谈时间**：2026-04-30 录制于 Anthropic 旧金山总部（彭博社 The Circuit 节目，Emily Chang 主持），2026-06-17 发布；B站中文搬运发布于 2026-09-13。同场采访的 47 分钟节目精编版（含童年、Daniela/Boris Cherny 纪录片片段）另见：[节目版笔记](https://waterflows.me/ai-notes/2026-10-06-dario-amodei-bloomberg-20260430-episode.html)

**为什么看这个视频**：Anthropic 已经成为估值反超 OpenAI 的"商业化领先者"，同时因 Mythos 网络模型拒绝公开发布、与五角大楼的合同红线之争、Claude 被用于伊朗战场 AI 辅助打击等事件处于舆论风暴中心。这是 Dario Amodei 在这一系列事件后接受的超长全景式专访，几乎覆盖了所有争议问题，而且提问相当犀利（黑 Girl School 空袭、MavenSmart 系统、"ideological lunatic" 的指控都直接砸到了脸上）。

**目标**：理解 Anthropic 一整套决策逻辑的自洽性——安全价值观、商业模式、政府关系三条线如何在其叙述中统一；以及 Dario 对就业冲击、SaaS 重建、AI 战争、权力制衡这几个具体问题的判断框架。

## 二、总结

### 核心观点

1. **"一年 10 倍"的模型智能指数压倒一切**：Dario 反复强调 10x/year 的指数是他所有判断的"罗塞塔石碑"——价值永远在 frontier 上，模型质量是唯一护城河，旧时代的产品直觉全部失效；对技术的反应既不该恐慌也不该否认，对策应当随能力"平滑棘轮式升级"。
2. **押注企业+编码是"商业模式与价值观兼容"的刻意选择**：广告驱动的消费级/社交媒体模式必然激励成瘾与 slop，与安全价值观结构性冲突；企业客户看重长期信任关系，与"负责任地部署模型"天然协同。SaaS 大屠杀之后，软件行业整体会变大而不是变小，但"我们写出了别人写不出的复杂软件"这类护城河会消失。
3. **就业预警维持原判**：他坚持"1~5 年内初级白领岗位 50% 消失"是"事情可能有多疯狂的量级估计"而非确定性预测；自动化先提效（90% 任务）后吞掉整个岗位，解法靠把饼做大 + 解决人岗匹配，落地岗位在物理世界、人与人关系、AI 指挥三类。
4. **战争问题的立场是"划红线并站稳"**：支持美国军事效能提升（威慑论），但红线是大规模监控和完全自主武器——"Claude 辅助、人类做最终决定"；伊朗女子学校空袭他的回应是"我不知道 Claude 扮演了什么角色，但这正是人类最终决定原则如此重要的原因"。
5. **权力制衡是贯穿全场的底色**：AI 是历史上第一个纯私营部门打造的强大技术，这是"危险而不稳定的局面"；他既怕公司拥有它也怕政府拥有它，自比 Leo Szilard 而非奥本海默，视奥本海默为"不该发生的失败案例"。

### 学以致用 TODO

**投资者（用产业逻辑而非情绪做判断）**

- [ ] 建立"护城河清单法"跟踪 SaaS/软件持仓：逐项列出持仓公司的 moat（复杂代码、客户关系、领域知识、独特数据），每季度标注哪些正被 AI 能力侵蚀、哪些相对升值——这是 Dario 给传统软件公司的建议，反过来就是选股筛查表
- [ ] 持续跟踪"frontier 溢价"是否成立：如果远离前沿的开源模型能承接大部分经济价值，AI 巨头的估值逻辑会塌；Dario 的"10x/year 使前沿价值远超非前沿"论断是可证伪的，用 API 价格与开源模型能力差距做季度验证
- [ ] 把"AI 辅助军事采购 + 国会红线立法"作为地缘主题跟踪：两党立法动向直接决定 Palantir/微软/Anthropic 这类公司的政府业务边界

**AI 浪潮同行者（在指数曲线上做决策）**

- [ ] 采纳"平滑棘轮"反应框架：对 AI 新能力的既定回应不是恐慌或否认，而是随能力提升同步升级自己的工具链与防御措施；看到有人 yo-yo 式极端反应，就调低对其判断的权重
- [ ] 实践 Dario 式 AI 写作法：只用 AI 做头脑风暴、主题梳理、参考资料检索，正文自己写——保留"通过写作挣扎着想清楚"的思维训练，这本身是长期认知资产
- [ ] 每半年对照"任务→岗位"清单审视自己的工作：哪些任务已被 AI 覆盖 90%，剩余 10% 的杠杆在哪，向"技术+客户界面"混合角色（forward-deployed engineer 型）或物理世界/人际交付靠拢

**普通人（理解就业冲击并提前布防）**

- [ ] 用"提效→吞岗"两阶段模型观察所在行业：当同事用 AI 后产出翻倍、但公司开始"用更少的人做同样的事"而非"同样的人做更多的事"时，就是第二阶段的信号，提前向物理世界、人际服务、AI 指挥三类岗位迁移技能

## 三、正文

### 3.1 在线观看

<iframe src="https://player.bilibili.com/player.html?isOutside=true&aid=117247506909889&bvid=BV1a5Y36MEWM&cid=41767930293&p=1&autoplay=0&danmaku=0" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" framespacing="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" style="width:100%;max-width:900px;aspect-ratio:16/9;border:0;border-radius:8px;"></iframe>

### 3.2 内容框架图（默认折叠）

<details style="margin:16px 0;">
<summary><strong>📁 内容框架图（点击展开）</strong></summary>

```
彭博社专访 Dario Amodei（Anthropic CEO）
├── 1. 出走 OpenAI（05:25–10:40）
│   ├── Open Philanthropy 时期的交集
│   ├── 离开的真因：不诚实的行为模式，而非单纯安全分歧
│   └── 印度峰会"拒绝牵手" → 行业信任光谱与 race to the top
├── 2. 商业战略（10:41–17:17）
│   ├── 押注 coding+enterprise：商业模式必须与价值观兼容
│   ├── 护城河 = 模型质量本身（不靠切换成本）
│   └── SaaS 大屠杀：moat 分解，行业变大但有输家
├── 3. 资本与算力（17:18–22:30）
│   ├── 金主利益冲突：出口管制的立场坚持
│   ├── 万亿估值 = 算力爬坡的不确定性缓冲
│   └── 单季 3x 增长 vs 10x/年规划：局部爆炸
├── 4. 领导力与文化（22:31–24:50）
│   ├── 领先者的价值观：一半时间花在公司文化
│   └── 产品节奏：统一文化 + 用 Claude 造 Claude
├── 5. 正面愿景（24:51–28:11）
│   ├── 医疗诊断与药物设计：一个世纪的科学进步
│   └── 用 Claude 写作：辅助而非代笔
├── 6. 就业冲击（28:12–36:39）
│   ├── 50% 初级白领岗位：量级预警而非预测
│   ├── 任务→岗位两阶段，饼会变大但匹配是难题
│   └── 回应"末日营销"：完整论述 vs 三秒剪辑
├── 7. 战争与国家安全（36:40–47:56）
│   ├── 反战者为何签国防部合同：威慑 + 红线
│   ├── Palantir/ICE/加沙：范围切割
│   ├── 1000→5000 目标/天：能力与政策的分离
│   ├── 伊朗女子学校：人类最终决定原则
│   └── AI 与三战：威慑 vs 奇爱博士
├── 8. Mythos（47:57–54:56）
│   ├── 网络杀伤链全程自主：早期客户求它别发布
│   ├── 开源复刻论"极其错误"：271 个 Firefox 新漏洞
│   ├── 先给防御者补洞：漏洞是有限的
│   └── 政府因反情报风险放缓开放节奏
├── 9. 权力制衡（54:57–59:27）
│   ├── AI 是首个私营部门打造的强技术
│   ├── Long-Term Benefit Trust 可罢免他
│   └── 国会立法红线 + 强制发布前测试
├── 10. 中国（59:28–01:02:17）
│   └── 开源模型威胁论：frontier 溢价 + 12 个月后 Mythos 级能力可下载
└── 11. 指数与风险（01:02:18–01:08:33）
    ├── 自我改进是连续过程：TFP 10–15%→20–30%
    ├── 自比 Leo Szilard，奥本海默是失败案例
    └── 10–25% 文明崩溃：航空公司类比
```

</details>

### 3.3 出走 OpenAI：信任的崩塌

#### 3.3.1 当年在 Open Philanthropy 辩论什么

<a class="video-seek" data-t="325">▶ 05:25</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你们当年辩论的是什么？

**Dario 答**：那时候应该是 Open Philanthropy Project 刚起步的时候，Holden（Karnofsky）牵头。我当时还是一个生物科学家，帮他们做一些发展中国家健康、生物研究方面的顾问工作——哪些领域有前景，哪些没有。

#### 3.3.2 离开 OpenAI 的真正原因

<a class="video-seek" data-t="349">▶ 05:49</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你离开 OpenAI 的决定已经成了硅谷传说。真正发生了什么？抛开外界叙事，分歧到底是什么？

**Dario 答**：我就简单直说吧。构建强大技术时会面临很多艰难议题——Anthropic 现在每天都在面对，我们经常不知道自己的决定是对是错。在安全问题上确实存在很多正当的分歧，我们和 OpenAI 之间当然也有过一些。但光有分歧不足以让人离开——Anthropic 内部的人跟我有分歧，彼此之间也有分歧，大家还是一起工作。

真正的问题是：当你觉得**对方不诚实**，当他们做事的动机和嘴上说的不一致，当你看到令人不安的行为模式、一次次的欺骗——那就很难再继续为这家公司工作、继续信任这家公司了。说到底，当你和对方没有共同的愿景、也不信任他们的时候，还争什么呢？解决方式就是我们去做我们的事，他们做他们的事。市场和公众舆论会给出答案，这比任何"谁为什么离开了谁"的drama 都更有说服力。

#### 3.3.3 印度峰会"拒绝牵手"事件

<a class="video-seek" data-t="464">▶ 07:44</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：在印度的 AI 峰会上，你和 Sam Altman 在台上看起来拒绝牵手，当时发生了什么？

**Dario 答**：事实是那场峰会组织得极其混乱。我们都是最后一刻被叫上台的，还临时调整了站位，拍完照之后突然要求大家手拉手。你去参加过这种峰会就知道——我不是针对印度——所有有国家元首出席的国际峰会都是超级混乱的。

**主持人追问**：但其他人都牵了手啊，拜托。

**Dario 答**：我不知道该说什么。就是莫迪（Narendra Modi）突然站在那儿，让所有人牵手……好吧。

#### 3.3.4 连台上的手都牵不到，凭什么相信你们会在生存风险上合作？

<a class="video-seek" data-t="514">▶ 08:34</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：Sam 和 Elon 在互相起诉，你也不喜欢 Sam。如果建造世界上最重要技术的人连台上的手都牵不起来，我们怎么能相信你们会在生存风险上合作？

**Dario 答**：这么说吧——建造这项技术的人，可信度和品质的方差非常大。"没人互相信任"这个判断是不对的。我认识 Demis Hassabis（Gemini 模型的建造者，Claude 的有力竞争者）15 年了，我们一起合作过很多议题。我们从 Google 买算力，经常交换安全方面的想法。

我认为需要发生的是：**可信的行动者联合起来，把不可信的行动者逼到不得不采用同样标准的位置上**。经验告诉我，有些人不会自觉做正确的事；但当行业里的大多数都在做正确的事，剩下的人就没多少腾挪空间了。这里面有"胡萝卜"——我和 Demis 互相激励，他做 AlphaFold，我们也想在生物领域做点事；我们做可解释性研究，他们跟着也启动可解释性研究。这甚至算不上竞争，就是每家公司做了件很酷的事，其他人说"这很酷，我们也想在这个方向找点新东西做"。这是 race to the top 的正激励。然后是"大棒"——这些人在做正确的事，那些不做的人会显得很难看。我们经常看到的行为是：他们一边勉强做正确的事，一边假装自己做的是别的、还暗示我们有什么阴暗的东西。这可以预期，但这就是让整个行业走到一起、实现合作的方式。

### 3.4 商业战略：押注企业与编码

#### 3.4.1 为什么押注 coding 和 enterprise 而不是消费级应用

<a class="video-seek" data-t="641">▶ 10:41</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：早期其他公司都在做有趣、炫目的消费级应用，你却押注编码和企业市场，Claude Code 爆了，Claude Cowork 也爆了。为什么下这个注？是价值观决策还是商业决策？

**Dario 答**：创办 Anthropic 时，最根本的一件事是"我们想把这事做对"。但你接着要问自己：要资助这种极其昂贵的模型研发，它就得是一家公司、就得有商业模式。那商业模式会不会妨碍价值观？——这个问题永远存在。我在其他公司待过、看过太多公司，学到的一课是：**如果你选了一个和价值观根本性冲突的商业模式，你会过得很惨**——要么背叛自己的价值观，要么变得无关紧要，进退两难。远不如选一个与价值观兼容的商业模式。

我们想过之后发现：社交媒体/消费级世界我们见过了，它真的很鼓励 engagement、甚至是成瘾——看看 AI 视频模型产出的那些 slop（垃圾内容），这是怎么回事？就是要最大化你的注意力分钟数，因为那是广告收入的激励结构。而企业市场不一样。想想 AI 能做的所有正面的事（我经常警告负面影响，但最终我们认为正面会压倒负面）：用 AI 治愈以前治不了的病——那是和 biotech、药企、学术研究组合作，全是 enterprise；让能源更便宜更高效——enterprise；教育——大部分是 enterprise；提高经济增长率——基本上也是 enterprise。而且企业客户非常看重信任和长期关系。消费级产品总有点 gimmick（小把戏）的成分，而企业市场讲究的是多年合作、互相兑现承诺、彼此信任。这和我们"以积极且安全的方式部署模型"的目标高度协同。不是说没有冲突、没有艰难选择，但这种选择的数量比 otherwise 少得多。

#### 3.4.2 开发者一个下午就能从 Claude 切到 GPT/Gemini，长期领先可能吗？

<a class="video-seek" data-t="827">▶ 13:47</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：一个开发者一个下午就能从 Claude 换到 GPT 或 Gemini。这个行业真的可能有长期领先吗？一个认真的竞争者要多久才能复制你建起的东西？

**Dario 答**：**模型质量是最重要的事。** 我们目前在模型质量上领先很远。确实存在一些惯性，但我从来不依赖它——Anthropic 从来不靠"客户粘性高、换不动"吃饭。你要有更好的模型、更好的产品。到目前为止我们的增长率完全没有出现拐点，如果说有变化，反而是在往上走（至少到录这期节目为止）。

#### 3.4.3 SaaS 大屠杀：$2850 亿市值一夜蒸发，传统软件会被替换多少？

<a class="video-seek" data-t="872">▶ 14:32</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：Claude Cowork 发布后不久，2850 亿美元的传统软件市值一夜蒸发，交易员们管它叫"SaaS-pocalypse"（SaaS 大屠杀）。如果 AI 按这个速度继续进步，传统软件会被替换多少、多快？

**Dario 答**：这种问题很难提前预测——如果能完美预测，人们早就预测了、在市场上赚大钱了。但有几点值得注意：所有传统软件公司都有一系列 moat（护城河）。会发生的是：**一部分护城河会消失，另一部分会留下来**。"快速写出复杂软件"的能力，我确定会消失——如果你的护城河是"我们写出了没人写得出的复杂软件"，那祝你好运（good luck），你守不住的。但客户关系、行业 know-how、独特的领域知识，这些还在。我给这些公司的建议是：别自满、别无视它。把你的所有护城河列成清单，清醒地认识到其中一些会消失、另一些会因为限制性因素而变得相对更重要，还可能出现新的护城河。那些灵巧应对、守住尚存护城河并开拓新护城河的公司会过得不错；那些自欺欺人、以为过去管用的将来还管用的，日子会很难过。

**主持人追问**：展开讲讲。

**Dario 答**：我就是觉得**饼在变大**。AI 能做到的东西增长 10 倍的时候，现有在位者的行业体量很容易也能涨 1.5 倍——只是相对整个大饼的占比在缩小。有些公司会贬值，有些如果转型失败甚至会倒闭。我的猜测是（取决于你怎么定义 SaaS）：**软件行业会变大，而不是变小——尽管会有一些大输家。**

#### 3.4.4 金主们各有算盘，到底谁说了算？

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1038">▶ 17:18</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你最大的支持者是 Amazon、Google、Microsoft、Nvidia，这些公司都有自己的议程，既是伙伴又是对手；你的融资还绑定着巨额商业里程碑。到底谁在发号施令？

**Dario 答**：有很多次我们是真的把想法直说了。我一直对"对中国出口芯片管制"的态度非常 outspoken——因为我认为如果中国在 AI 能力上领先，对美国、对世界的民主状态都非常糟糕。一些芯片厂商显然不同意这个观点，但这从来没有阻止我说出来，包括在我们签了更多合作协议之后的现在，我还在说。他们知道我们一直是好伙伴、能合作。我确定他们宁愿我们不说这些话，但这些是我相信的东西，能怎么办呢？说到底，我们都是成年人——可以在一件事上合作，同时在另一件事上持不同意见。

#### 3.4.5 万亿估值怎么理解

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1108">▶ 18:28</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：彭博报道说你们的估值已经超过 OpenAI，一家成立五年的初创公司估值接近一万亿美元。你怎么理解这个数字？你在算力上更克制、盈利路径更快，为什么还需要这么多钱？

**Dario 答**：算力爬坡非常快。完全可能出现这种情况：业务基本面看起来很好，但一年后你的算力是现在的三四倍（我不给具体数字）。我们有充分的预期：收入爬坡会跟得上甚至超过算力爬坡。而**融资是对这个"不确定性锥"的缓冲**——这是完全理性的事，对股权的稀释很小，而且和"业务基本面有问题"完全不矛盾，甚至兼容于相反的判断。

#### 3.4.6 服务器过载是在打补丁追赶吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1168">▶ 19:28</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：有服务器过载、可靠性问题的报道，用户抱怨 token 不够用。你说过其他公司在基础设施上 YOLO。你到底是有底气，还是在追赶？

**Dario 答**：算力是有市场的，超过几个月的周期看，我们总能拿到大量算力。按任何合理的标准，我都不认为我们买少了算力——我们按**一年 10 倍**的算力增长做规划，10x/年就是我们的预期。但 2026 年第一季度我们看到的不是这个：**单季度收入增长超过 3 倍**——一个季度 3x，年化就是 3 的四次方，80 倍。我们没按 80x 年化做规划，按 80x 规划才是不理性的——因为如果只实现了 10x，你就背着 8 倍的闲置。所以我们处在一个**局部极端的算力爆炸**里。这不会持续——如果持续，到年底会出现地球上任何公司都没有的收入数字，这不可能。但就是会出现这种短期："天哪，这比我们可能预期过的任何增长都快。"算力市场是流动的，你见到了和 Google、Amazon 的算力协议，还有更多我们能做也会做的——只要你能把算力用好、有需求，你就能拿到算力，可能只是一两个月的延迟。

#### 3.4.7 超越宿敌的感觉

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1276">▶ 21:16</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：超过你的宿敌（OpenAI），感觉好吧？

**Dario 答**：我们面前有很多艰难的挑战。这个"race to the top"的理念，就是我们要拉着其他公司一起往上走——我们已经看到我们把他们拉上来了，有时他们不承认，有时一边抄我们一边攻击我们，但这个拉动本身非常有价值。所以成为 preeminent 的公司——商业上和模型上——**不是为了打败对手而打败对手，而是为了拥有拉着整个生态一起走的能力**。我们希望未来能做更多这样的事。

**主持人**：但赢总得有点爽吧？

**Dario 答**：我们一直在努力成功，我们不是在追求失败。我不是那种认为"应该关停这项技术、不该建造它"的人。我们存在于自由企业制度里，这没什么不对——我们只需要缓解模型的风险，一切从来都是这两者之间的平衡。

### 3.5 领导力与文化

#### 3.5.1 领先之后，道德高地还站得住吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1351">▶ 22:31</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：Anthropic 历史上的大部分时间你是 underdog。我猜当你一无所有的时候，站道德高地更容易。现在到了这个规模，坚守价值观有多难？

**Dario 答**：我在每一个规模上都是偏执的（paranoid）。每个阶段都有新的挑战、新的让公司输掉的方式——不管是纯粹商业上的求胜欲，还是价值观的内核。我担心两者，因为我把它们看作一体的：**我们能把模型做得这么好，恰恰是我们能让价值观有效落地的原因。** 随着公司变大，坑很多。出问题往往不是因为我和联合创始人、公司领导层的价值观变了，而是**公司的成分变化太快**。所以我大概把一半的时间花在和公司谈 Anthropic 的文化、文化如何运转上。当你在这么快地招人——从各大科技公司招来一堆人——如果你不告诉他们 Anthropic 怎么运作，他们就会简单地复刻自己唯一知道的东西：他们原来那家公司的运作方式。这是持续的斗争。我和 Daniela 的头号优先事项就是想清楚怎么保住这个——因为我们认识到，长期来看这是我们的核心所在。

#### 3.5.2 疯狂的产品节奏怎么做到的

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1443">▶ 24:03</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你们的产品速度快得离谱，shipping 这么多这么快，怎么做到的？

**Dario 答**：两点。第一，我们是一个统一的公司、统一的文化——公司变大但依然极其高效，所有人还在同一页纸上，这种文化和组织的统一性是最大因素。第二大因素就是 Claude 本身——我们现在用 Claude 来帮助开发我们的模型、提高效率、快速开发产品。得发展出一整套新实践，我们还在学习，但它正在产生大量加速，而且越来越是**可靠的**加速。

### 3.6 AI 的正面愿景

#### 3.6.1 见过 AI 做过的最疯狂的事

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1491">▶ 24:51</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：能讲讲你见过 AI 做的最疯狂的事吗？

**Dario 答**：最疯狂的一些事发生在生物和医学领域。我见过好几个案例——包括 Daniela 本人——Claude 诊断出了一批很厉害的医生都漏诊的疾病。生物这边，模型在药物设计、计算化学这类任务上开始出奇地好。作为一个曾经的生物学家，我看着就想：哇，这很难的，这需要大量训练才能做到，而 Claude 正在变擅长。这是我们将获得巨大收益的领域——AI 的正面所在：我们会得到巨大、 enormous 的收益，生活会变得更好，人类体验的质量会变好。**一个世纪的科学进步——科学上的一个世纪，加上"作为人类是什么体验"上的一个世纪。** 回到 1900 年，想想那时人们面临的所有问题、所有过早死亡的原因、所有今天我们不用忍受的物质匮乏——然后再来一百年这样的进步。如果我们能挺过这一关（我认为我们能，我越来越乐观），我们会拥有一个好得多的世界。

#### 3.6.2 你用 Claude 写作吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1573">▶ 26:13</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：我知道你多爱写作，你的 essay 很有名。你用 Claude 帮你写吗？

**Dario 答**：用。但我还没到允许 Claude 直接写的文字进正文的程度——我的风格太具体了，我有点挑。我基本是用 Claude 帮我头脑风暴、梳理主题、想"这里可以引哪些参考"。它扮演辅助角色。我不知道我们离"Claude 写得比我好"还有多远——还没到，但肯定在来的路上。

**主持人追问**：我也爱写作，写作帮你挣扎着（struggle through）想清楚想法，这其中有大量的批判性思维。如果让 Claude 代劳，我们会不会失去这些？

**Dario 答**：我有点担心这个——这正是我自己还坚持写的一半原因。对外读者是一个原因，但**同样重要的是把自己的想法磨清楚，这样我才知道下一步做什么**，也给自己和别人一个共同的参照点。我们还在摸索到底怎么用 AI 才能保住这些好处。如果端到端地用——"写一篇关于 AI 风险的文章"——首先它写不出我所想的东西，其次我恰好会失去那个好处。随着模型变好，应该有办法更直接地用于写作、同时保住这些好处，但这会是一件微妙的事，不会是非此即彼，我们得慢慢摸索。

### 3.7 就业冲击：50% 初级白领岗位

#### 3.7.1 "50% 初级白领岗位消失"的预测还成立吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1692">▶ 28:12</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你对失业问题非常直接。你说过 AI 可能在未来 1~5 年内消灭一半的初级白领岗位——那是一年前，AI 进步快得惊人。现在还是 50%，还是更高？

**Dario 答**：我一直说的是（如果你回去看原始片段，总是被剪成三秒的语境截取）：**真实的表述从来是"我不知道会发生什么，但这是'事情可能有多疯狂'的量级估计"**。而且我总是在谈应对措施——token tax、和企业一起帮人转型（我对再培训项目有点怀疑，但也该扔进组合里）、宏观经济政策。从一开始我谈的就是问题和方案，但人类心理总有这么个倾向：只剪出"末日来了"那三秒。所以我的信息绝对不是"末日来了"，而是"这是我们能预见的东西，我们担心它，我们需要积极地应对"。

我不知道确切数字，但我仍然相当担心，还是同一个量级的担心。我们此刻看到的是 AI 在让人更有生产力——但这是惯常的"驼峰"：回到工业革命（我在《Machines of Loving Grace》/技术青春期那篇里写过），你把一份工作自动化 90%，很好，剩下 10% 里的人生产率翻了 10 倍，因为杠杆大了 10 倍。但最终自动化逼近 100%——接下来的问题就变成：你得给他们找别的事做。长期我不知道，我是真的不确定。但我确实看到一些适应的形态：比如 Anthropic 内部的软件工程师，我们现在就在经历这个转变——AI 写了全部或几乎全部的代码，但目前仍然让人更有生产率；我们已经开始看到苗头：**对某些人来说，AI 不再让他更有生产率，而是 AI 直接把事做了更好。** 另一面是需求侧：我们有个角色叫 forward-deployed engineer / applied AI solutions architect——一半技术工作一半对接客户——需求量巨大，因为客户太多、增长太快。每个纯软件工程岗都能转成这个吗？不完美，不是一对一。这给你一个 flavor：**会有 hell of a lot 的颠覆，但事情也会调整。哪边赢？我不知道。** 之所以要预警，是因为这样我们才能回应——在 Anthropic 内部和整个世界的宏观层面把政策做对。

#### 3.7.2 岗位冲击图表：哪些工作消失、什么新工作产生

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1876">▶ 31:16</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你们发布过一张潜在岗位冲击的图表——销售、金融等，哪些工作消失、谁被替代、什么新工作被创造？

**Dario 答**：没人能确定，经济和股市一样是不可预测的分散化过程。但大方向上：任何**初级白领**的地方——银行、金融等等——都会先经历"AI 让人更有生产率"，然后是"AI 可以整个拿下这份工作"，那时我们就得想：人能做什么？这需要提前规划。我们和企业客户谈的时候已经在做这件事。他们面临选择：是**省成本**（通常意味着少雇人、用更少资源做同样的事），还是**用同样的资源做更多的事**？只要有可能，我们就推他们往后者走——同样多的人甚至更多的人，但做新的东西——推向正和博弈。我们手里有利的条件是**饼会扩张很多**，所以大概率会有人的去处，问题只是够不够快地找到它们。颠覆的规模——会很大，这就是我在警告的；但我们得解决那个匹配问题。

#### 3.7.3 五年后醒来，这个国家什么样

<a class="video-seek" data-t="1986">▶ 33:06</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：推演一下：你五年后醒来，这个国家什么样？那些人在干什么？如果失业真有那么严重，革命不就是这么开始的吗？

**Dario 答**：对，这正是我们要防止的结果，绝对是要防止的结果。有几个去处，没有一个有保证：**物理世界**——没错，机器人革命也在发生，但比 AI 慢得多。人们总在谈建数据中心，但当任何类型的信息处理都变得容易时，限制因素可能回到物理世界上——我们需要更多人去制造、建造实物。**任何以人为中心的领域**——我总听到"AI 发现了我医生没发现的东西"的故事，我很开心，但人就是想和人谈重要的事，至少有些人想。所以人际驱动的工作会重要。还有**人指挥 AI**——某种层面上，它必须对齐于某个人的价值和意图，所以会有角色在那，虽然我不知道这个层是薄还是厚，很难说。

#### 3.7.4 回应"末日营销"：黄仁勋说你混淆了任务和岗位

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2081">▶ 34:41</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：质疑很多。黄仁勋说你把任务（tasks）和岗位（jobs）混为一谈；还有人说这是对 Anthropic 有利的"末日营销"。

**Dario 答**：我要非常清楚地硬气回击这一点。"有失业风险 + 这里有一些想法"才是完整的图景——Anthropic 提出过很多想法：economic grants（经济资助计划）、Economic Index（经济指数）、从税收和宏观政策到新岗位形态的所有应对路径。在《Machines of Loving Grace》里我用了整整五页区分任务和岗位、讲为什么这次和以往不同、列出六件可做的事——从私人慈善到政府行动。我谈问题，也谈方案。但社交媒体——我厌恶它，作为一个 category 厌恶——人们拿着一年前的三秒片段，不读 essay，只靠三秒剪辑说事。**"这是廉价营销"这个说法本身才是廉价营销。** 这是懒惰，是拒绝严肃对待知识工作，这就是问题的一部分，是硅谷的病：被三秒钟的社交媒体世界俘获，于是人们只回应三秒、也以为只需要回应三秒。每当有人这样说，我就少把他们当回事一分。

### 3.8 战争与国家安全

#### 3.8.1 反战立场的人，为什么第一个签国防部合同

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2200">▶ 36:40</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：全球领先的 AI 公司之一深度嵌入美国国家安全的多个层面，Anthropic 与五角大楼关于 AI 军事安全护栏的对峙正在升级。你从加州理工时期就有鲜明的反战立场，但你们却是第一批和国防部签约、在其作战保密网络上运行的 AI 公司。解释一下？

**Dario 答**：世界变了。看到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，我担心的是威权阵营重新崛起、极具攻击性，我们需要能自卫——这是我一段时间以来的信念，也是我们（在两届政府下）总体上支持国防合作的原因，尽管两届政府的每个政策我未必都认同。**我们肯定不是为了钱——上政府网络是个巨大的麻烦**，抛开法律战不谈，就为不多的钱。我们做是因为我们在乎。但同样因为在乎，所以对技术的使用必须有边界。我在文章里的表述是：**"除了那些破坏我们自己价值观的方式，我们应该用一切方式使用这项技术。"** 我们的红线是**大规模监控**和**完全自主武器**——这两件事我认为破坏我们的价值观。如果民主国家靠做这些事来赢，那赢就没有意义。这就是我所看到的平衡，也解释了为什么我们第一个和战争部（DoD）合作、同时又有别人愿意做而我们不做的事。**你需要选定立场并站稳。** 那种从"绝不和政府做任何事"突然 seesaw 到"和政府做绝对所有事"的公司，我不理解。你应该选定原则并坚持下去。

#### 3.8.2 Palantir、ICE 与加沙

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2338">▶ 38:58</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你们从 2024 年起就与 Palantir 合作。Palantir 的技术被 ICE、警察部门用在加沙。Claude 有没有以其他方式被用于监控？

**Dario 答**：我们不和 ICE 合作——不管通过 Palantir 还是其他人。不和 CBP 合作。加沙那边我相信我们没有参与。我们对合作的范围切割非常小心，只做我们相信的事。

**主持人追问**：你划了红线，然后总统禁了你们参与联邦政府，五角大楼把你们列为供应链风险，OpenAI 跳进来签了你们不肯签的合同。这场仗怎样才算赢？

**Dario 答**：我不认为有哪家私人公司能"赢下"这场仗——这甚至不是一场仗，这是一场关于"政府对 AI 的正当使用是什么"的辩论。AI 是新兴技术，我们不理解它哪些方面可靠、哪些不可靠，不理解它何时促进我们的价值观、何时破坏。我认为重要的事情之一是**树立先例**：哪些用例是好的（坦白说是大多数）、哪些是我们担忧的。一份合同能做到的有限——别人可以签一份不尊重你红线的合同。但它做到的是**让这个问题进入公众视野**。现在国会有严肃的两党努力在尝试禁止我们担忧的一些用法、设立护栏。这才是"赢"——让我们的国家更认真地思考这项技术的正当使用。

#### 3.8.3 "意识形态疯子"

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2453">▶ 40:53</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：有人说"Anthropic 由一个意识形态疯子运营，不该让他独断公司的决策"。被叫"意识形态疯子"或"一帮左翼疯子"，你介意吗？

**Dario 答**：被叫过更难听的，一直都有。人们想叫我和 Anthropic 什么都随他们。真正重要的只有两件事：**我们作为一家公司是成功的，以及我们坚持自己的价值观。** 从某种意义上说我的生活真的很简单——当你要做的就这两件事时，你永远知道自己的立场在哪。

#### 3.8.4 从每天 1000 个目标到 5000 个：Claude 能帮更快地杀人

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2487">▶ 41:27</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：一位美国官员说，借助 LLM，美军从每天能打击 1000 个目标提升到了 5000 个。这意味着 Claude 能帮更多人、更快地被杀死。你舒服吗？

**Dario 答**：这里有两件事。第一，美国军事上更有效的能力——我支持。更强的能力不会引发战争，**它威慑战争**。你其实在问：你信不信这个国家？你想让这个国家在世界舞台上是更强大还是更弱小的行动者？我信，我是爱国者。第二个问题是分离的：美国政府的具体政策我可能支持或不支持——有些支持，有些不支持，但这不由我决定。战争部（DOW）说过一个观点，我们其实同意：**如果我们提供了一项技术，那么"这个军事行动可以做、那个不可以"不是由我们说了算。** 我私下可能认为这次行动有道理、那次是坏主意，但我们不会因此拒绝提供技术——政策必须留在军事决策者手里。你能做的是主张一些高层级的边界：阻止那些与我们的价值观、与我们国家价值观不一致的用例，鼓励那些促进价值观的用例。这就是我们的思考方式。

#### 3.8.5 伊朗女子学校空袭：Claude 扮演了什么角色

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2588">▶ 43:08</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：彭博报道，Claude 正通过 Palantir 的 MavenSmart 系统被美军用于伊朗战争的 AI 辅助打击。二月，一枚美国导弹击中伊朗一所女子学校，150 多人丧生，大多是儿童。Claude 在那次打击中扮演了角色吗？

**Dario 答**：我们没有权限，不知道这些模型具体怎么被用的。显然，战争中发生的错误是可怕的，这是极其可怕的事。如果这还不能说明为什么我们必须为我们不支持的用例站出来——我们可是冒着公司的未来去限制这些模型的使用方式。而你说到的这个用例甚至**没有违反我们的红线**。我担心的是：如果红线被突破，将会有百倍于此的事情发生。总体上我认为这些模型的使用是正当的、净效应是好的，但军事决策者即使在最好的时代也会犯下可怕的错误，而我不确定我们现在是否处在最好的时代。我们能谈的是设立红线，防止更容易导致这类问题的用法。如果我们在完全自主武器上让步了（现在几乎每家其他公司都让了）——这里的情况是 **Claude 辅助、人类做最终决定。所以做那个最终决定的是人，不是 Claude。** 想象一下相反的世界：不是 Claude（因为我们没允许），而是别家的 AI 模型自己做决定，人根本看不到。这就是我们坚持的、这就是我们对抗的。另外，作为公民（不是作为供应商），确保军事决策者不犯这类错误、可靠地运作、明智地选择，是美国人民利益攸关的事——政府大量使用 Microsoft Excel，你说"这个军事行动可以用 Excel、那个不行"，现实里做不到。希望这能让你理解我们的思路。

**主持人追问**：那所学校有官网，Google 搜一下就能找到。难道 Claude 不该发现吗？这是否暴露了把技术当战争捷径的更可怕的问题？

**Dario 答**：我不知道——这依赖于可能我并不掌握的涉密信息。但我们确立的原则、我相信在这里被遵守的原则是：**人类做最终决定。** 我不知道 Claude 或任何 AI 扮演了什么角色，但如果这不是"那个原则如此重要"的最佳例证，我不知道什么才是。

#### 3.8.6 AI 战争是阻止三战还是引发三战

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2792">▶ 46:32</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：AI 战争更有可能阻止第三次世界大战（美中战争），还是更有可能引发它？

**Dario 答**：总体平衡上，更可能阻止它。但如果对它的使用毫无限制，那它可能更倾向于引发。你看过《奇爱博士》（Dr. Strangelove）吧？它的前提就是一个末日装置：侦测到核武器来袭就自动发射核反击——能出什么错呢？这又回到完全自主武器的问题。冲突发生的方式是：双方扑向对方、误解对方。当我们对这项技术没有适当的监督时，这类事故更容易发生。而如果 AI 以正当的方式使用——甚至不是作战，就说是情报收集——假设我们能预测对台湾的入侵、乌克兰的新动向：当对手知道我们对他们做的一切了如指掌时，他们会三思。**卓越的情报真能威慑冲突，卓越的响应能力能威慑冲突。** 我一直是这些的信徒。

### 3.9 Mythos：不发布的网络超级模型

#### 3.9.1 Mythos 最让人惊讶的地方

<a class="video-seek" data-t="2877">▶ 47:57</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：Anthropic 几乎每周都在上头条，现在最引人注目的是 Mythos——最新最强的 Anthropic 模型，能自主走完网络杀伤链（cyber kill chain）的所有环节。你说 Mythos 太强大而不能对公众发布。它最让你惊讶的是什么？

**Dario 答**：最让我惊讶的是：模型在发现漏洞、并且**把漏洞转化为可利用的 exploit**（大家只谈漏洞发现，很少谈漏洞利用化，而它非常擅长后者）的能力一直在爬升，而这次我们看到了一次特别大的跳升。更意外的是，完全在我们没有要求的情况下，一些拿到早期试用权的公司主动说：**"这是一个超级武器（super weapon）。使用它应该像持枪一样需要执照。请千万别发布它。"** 求我们别发布的，恰恰是那些用它发现了大量关键漏洞和可利用性的客户公司。澄清一下（因为事情总在社交媒体上被扭曲）：目标不是把它永远锁起来。我们在逐步向越来越广的人群开放，最终我们相信应该向普通受众发布 Mythos，但要带强有力的网络防护措施。现在的问题是：今天的网络防护措施——我们已经在 Opus 4.7 上发布过（一个不错但弱得多的网络模型）——**是可以被越狱绕过的**。我们对其他一些公司"这已经足够防御"的想法有点担忧：它有时管用，但我们都知道这些分类器可以被越狱或绕过。我们自己的测试、以及对其他公司所部署防御的评估都表明：**这些防御还不够强。我们等的，就是防御强到我们真正有信心的那一刻。**

#### 3.9.2 "开源模型能复刻"的说法"极其错误"

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3013">▶ 50:13</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：质疑很多。有研究者说用更便宜的开源模型复刻了它，有人说 OpenAI 早就有这些能力。你怎么回应"这是一场大型 PR 表演"的说法？

**Dario 答**："可以用开源模型复刻"这个说法，就是极其错误（incredibly false）的。Mythos 做的是**扫视整个代码库**找到问题。有个哥们上 Twitter 说："如果我把开源模型对准 Mythos 找到的那一行代码，它能发现同样的问题。"——那不是 prompt，那不是问题本身，这两件事根本不是一回事。**终极检验是实际有效的 workflow**：我们去到公司、去到开源仓库——我们在 Firefox 里找到了 271 个新漏洞；在企业私域里找到了成千上万个（还没修、或还不能披露）。此前没有任何模型找到过那 271 个漏洞。所以，"我先找到 Mythos 找到的那一行——我在草垛里找到了那根针，别的什么东西现在能把针捡起来"——这不叫复刻。

#### 3.9.3 只是营销运作？不发布伤害的是自己

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3031">▶ 50:31</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：那对说"这只是一次出色的营销"的人呢？

**Dario 答**：**不发布这个模型，让我们在商业上蒙受了巨大的损失。** 它在 Anthropic 内部极大地加速了研究和下一代模型的生产，如果发布，也会在外部世界做到同样的事。这件事严重伤害了我们的商业利益。（说这是营销，逻辑上根本不通。）

#### 3.9.4 帮了防御者也就帮了攻击者：我们还能防御任何东西吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3112">▶ 51:52</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：如果它帮防御者，它也帮攻击者。我们还能防御住任何东西吗？

**Dario 答**：我们先把 Mythos 交给防御者而不是攻击者的原因，就是**把洞都补上**。我不知道——随着模型变强，可能会有越来越多的 bug 被发现，但**洞是有限的**。就像一个表面，上面只有那么些孔。你把孔都补上，这个表面就变得非常难以攻击；再加上代码本身是用强大的模型写出来的，找它的缺陷、攻破它会变得非常难。所以我希望在这件事的另一侧——也许六个月或一年后——我们拥有一个比过去安全得多的互联网生态。我们正在走向那个世界，尽最大努力向新的网络防御者开放 Mythos。我们一直在和政府沟通，非常尊重他们的建议——**他们正在放缓我们开放的速度，因为他们担心反情报风险。我认为这是明智的。** 这里所有严肃的人都明白存在真实的权衡。我们在 Twitter 上、从其他 AI 公司那里看到大量冷枪（sniping）——看看他们说的话和他们做的事之间的不一致：他们不是严肃的人，没有在严肃地面对这些严肃的权衡。听着，每天都有客户打电话来说"我要 Mythos 的访问权"，有国家打来电话说"我们要 Mythos 的访问权"，而美国政府和我自己的安全团队说"不，等等，有风险"。我不说哪边对，我觉得在两者之间，两边都有道理。但这是一个真实的挑战，我们需要作为一个社会一起面对它——而不是指责别人是廉价营销，也不是用廉价营销去反卡位（其他一些公司正在这么做）。这一切都显示出惊人的不成熟和不稳重。我们都需要一起面对这个时刻。

#### 3.9.5 做过让你不舒服的妥协吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3231">▶ 53:51</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你是否已经不得不做过一些你自己都不完全舒服的妥协？

**Dario 答**：Anthropic 的整部历史就是妥协的历史。在某个理想世界里，你会在发布第一个 chatbot 之前，花好几年研究每一种可能出错的情况。我们确实推迟了——推迟了 Claude 最初的发布——但只推迟了几个月。所以我说的是：**一切皆是权衡，光谱的两端都完全是疯狂的。** 而现在我们处在我称之为"商业领先"的位置上，我和 Daniela 正在尽一切努力把表盘进一步拨向"谨慎"——Mythos 的处理就是如此。如果你不是领先的玩家，你很难做成这样的事。所以我认为你们会看到更多这样的事。

### 3.10 权力制衡与政府

#### 3.10.1 政府为什么不直接接管你

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3297">▶ 54:57</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：有个论调是：政府为什么不接管你们？为什么要让一家私人公司掌控这么强大的技术？

**Dario 答**：这是个非常严肃的问题，我同样有这个担忧。我不认为政府应该直接接管我们，但让我退一步描述一下局面。**历史上每一种先前的强大技术，要么是政府建造的，要么起源于政府。** 核武器显然是；即便是互联网、GPS、手机，所有研发都是在国家实验室、在大学里完成的。**AI 是第一种在私营部门建造的强大技术**——政府从来没有真正深入参与，是迟到者。我认为这实际上是一个危险而不稳定的局面。这不是我会选择的局面，但也没有别的选项：这项技术是可建造的，我们的对手在建造，它有经济价值——它一定会被建造出来。**问题不在私营部门在做，而在政府没做。**

所以我认为需要思考对权力的制衡。AI 公司的权力需要被制衡：我们有 Long-Term Benefit Trust（长期利益信托）——一个可以任命和罢免董事会多数成员的机构，把它穿起来看，**本质上它有权解雇我**。我们正在引入一部分（远非全部）公共治理的元素：你要对不仅仅持有公司股票的人负责。这很重要，而且无论公司将来发生什么，这个结构都会延续。我们鼓励其他公司采用类似结构。在政府一侧，同样需要制衡——国会已经宣布了将那些红线立法的努力。我真的认为立法和司法分支需要发出自己的声音，因为**这项技术，我怕公司拥有它，我同样怕政府拥有它。** 公司要对政府形成制衡，政府也要对公司形成制衡。我们需要对这项技术的基本监管，需要开始做**强制性的发布前测试**、对模型的测试和审计。有一群硅谷科技圈的人让我觉得很好笑：他们从"哪怕只是透明度、哪怕只是出口管制，都会灾难性地毁掉我们创造技术的潜力、杀死创新"的立场出发，然后一看到第一个真正的危险（这个危险我一直在预期），马上开始大谈国有化、"政府应该直接没收"。拜托，各位，你们从最极端的反监管——"多看我们一眼就是在毁灭行业"——直接 yo-yo 到彻头彻尾的计划经济——"政府应该全部拿走"。**我们需要的是更明智、更温和的路线**，就是我们一直以来主张的，因为我们一直理解这项技术的力量。我们不恐慌，也不否认。**我们看见的是平滑的指数曲线，并且恰当地回应它。**

#### 3.10.2 重返白宫的观感

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3516">▶ 58:36</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你最近重回白宫，感觉如何？

**Dario 答**：我们总是尽量和政府里能合作的人合作。我们的做法很简单：有一套原则，跟着原则走，然后希望对面的人是讲道理的。坦白说，**政府把 Mythos 非常当回事**。我们和财长 Bessent、幕僚长 Susie Wiles 有过很好的对话，我认为他们真的理解这里风险的本质。Mythos 让他们对"风险具体在哪"有了实感。和任何一届政府一样，有的部分我们相处很好、他们理解这件事，有的部分更难相处——这在任何政府都会如此，我们尽力周旋。

### 3.11 中国

#### 3.11.1 中国开源模型是威胁吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3568">▶ 59:28</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你早年在大厂百度工作过（硅谷分部），你对中国的观点一直很明确。现在强大的开源模型正从中国出来，美国公司在免费拿它们做开发。这是威胁吗？

**Dario 答**：这项技术的一个现象是：**模型的智能程度存在真实的溢价。** 我们极少极少见到有人更愿意用智能更低的模型。当然，生态是繁荣的，有大量比前沿问题容易得多的挑战——这些远离前沿的模型，其经济价值可能与 2023、2024 年的水平相当。但别忘了那个指数：我们有的是 10x/year 的增长，所以**前沿上的东西永远比远离前沿的大得多得多**。我觉得这是习惯了上一个产品时代的人不太理解的。作为一个此前从没运营过公司、从没经历过上一个产品时代、尤其厌恶社交媒体时代的人，我就像那个世界的外来者，而我觉得**人们的直觉是错的**——他们有一堆产品层面的启发式经验，而一年 10 倍的模型指数把这些全部打破。**智能就是如此巨大的一个因子，大到压倒其他一切。** 我们一遍又一遍地看到：价值在 frontier 上被找到。我真正担心的反而是这些落后模型的风险面：今天我们有 Mythos 级别的网络能力，12 个月后我们会有强得多的网络能力——但 **Mythos 级别的网络能力到那时可能任何人都能免费下载**。希望在那之前我们已经把所有洞都补上了。我不认为有什么能阻止这件事，但我认为这是严重的担忧。

#### 3.11.2 百度的经历塑造了你的对华观吗

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3694">▶ 01:01:34</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你在百度看到的东西塑造了你对中国的观点吗？

**Dario 答**：并没有。我只在那儿工作了一年，学到的更多是语音识别这些东西。唯一让我有些不安的是：我们获得语音识别数据的部分方式——他们带着不祥的意味说：**"噢，我们在中国不在乎隐私，所以我们有全部这些语音数据。"** 我认为我们有机会让 AI 成为一项亲民主（pro-democracy）的技术——让人们更自由、兑现"人人平等正义"的承诺。或者它走向另一边。而走哪条路，取决于 AI 公司的行动、政府的行动、我们所有人的行动。所以我视我们自己为负有责任。

### 3.12 指数、奥本海默与生存风险

#### 3.12.1 AI 自我改进的时刻还有多远

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3738">▶ 01:02:18</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你们领域的人常谈一个时刻：AI 好到能改进自己，改进后的版本再改进自己，如此循环。你的某些研究员认为那个时刻很近了。还有多远？

**Dario 答**：我不认为那是一个时间点，我认为它是一个连续过程。我们已经看到它以某些方式发生——AI 能为下一代 AI 建议架构。一年前，我们（因 AI）获得的**全要素生产率（TFP）提升大约在 10%~15%**；现在大概到 **20%~30%** 了，可能在翻倍。和所有事一样，我们在指数上。**不存在"AI 自我改进、失控、变得不安全"的某个时刻——我们拥有的是一条加速的指数曲线。** 在曲线的每一点上我们都要评估：现在是该放慢的时候吗？是加更多控制的时候吗？我认为会需要越来越多这样的动作。而这一切的罗塞塔石碑，还是那条平滑的指数。反对一切 AI 监管的人一看到事就喊着要国有化；贬低 AI 力量的人一看到事就喊着"天哪它在自我改进、失控了、必须全部关停"——**在极端反应之间 yo-yo，是对这项技术极其无益的回应。** 正确的、智慧的回应是：我们不恐慌，我们的反制措施将随技术的力量平滑地棘轮式升级。**如果你看到有人做出这种疯狂的 yo-yo 反应，那说明他们被吓到了、他们不严肃。**

#### 3.12.2 奥本海默的平行

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3841">▶ 01:04:01</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：我知道你最喜欢的书之一是《原子弹秘史》（The Making of the Atomic Bomb）。你看到自己和奥本海默之间的平行了吗？

**Dario 答**：我最认同的人物其实是 Leo Szilard——最早提出可能存在链式反应的那个人。听着，我的观点是：我们不可能靠传奇式的个人英雄、靠那种想站在一切中心的人物渡过这一关。这里需要的是权力的平衡——有很多强大的行动者在此各有利益，唯一对所有人都好的结局，是**处处都有制衡**。所以在某种意义上，**我实际上把奥本海默视为一个失败案例，视为不该发生的事**。

#### 3.12.3 10%~25% 的文明崩溃概率

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3883">▶ 01:04:43</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你说过文明崩溃的概率大约在 10%~25%。这可不是小数字。有没有一种可能，造成它的正是 Anthropic 造出来的东西？

**Dario 答**：我当然希望不会。我的看法是：我们所采取的行动在**降低**这个概率，而不是提高它。这个概率来自一个直白的配方：技术本身 + 世界上有许多国家 + 一个经济体里有许多公司（真空就会被填补）。这就是我们所处的困境。我们在努力降低那个概率，我认为我们降低的远多于我们抬高的。但这项技术的固有属性就是不可预测，所以我们发布前大量测试；今天发布的模型并不危险——至少在网络领域之外我认为真的不危险——然后我们迭代、学习。我们内部有一整套防御机制，公司一半的工作就是尽可能降低风险。但它永远不会是零。这么说吧：假设有一堆航空公司，你说"我要办一家安全得多的航空公司"——你的公司完全可能比其他所有航空公司安全 10 倍，但当别人问你"你能保证你的飞机永不坠毁吗"——怎么可能？怎么可能保证？

**主持人**：但如果有 25% 的坠机概率，没人会上那架飞机。

**Dario 答**：**没错，25% 太高了。我们正在努力把这个概率降得低得多、低得多。这就是目标。**

#### 3.12.4 你在建造无比强大的东西并从中获益，凭什么信任你

<a class="video-seek" data-t="3991">▶ 01:06:31</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你正在建造无比强大的东西，并将从中获得巨大的收益。凭什么信任你？

**Dario 答**：我的看法是：对任何一家初创公司——尤其是考虑到硅谷作为一个整体过去几年的行为——**从"不信任"出发是完全理性的**。硅谷失去了世界的大量信任，必须重新挣回来。我们想传递的信息是：我们真的不一样。而这必须用我们实际做的事来挣得。你可以同意或不同意，但我们坚持了自己的价值观：Mythos 这件事，不把这个强大的模型放出去，真的在商业上重创了我们；之前还有一系列小事——在对华问题上我们言行一致地砍掉了模型访问权，没人要求我们这么做，让我们付出了好几亿美元的代价（当时这可是我们收入的显著比例）；还有 Claude 2 的推迟——我们有一整段这样的历史。我们不完美，会犯错，组织永远有失调的地方，永远在修复和改进，无数次踩线、无数次出错。但我想请人们看**整段历史的加总**，然后问：关于我们，与这整段历史最一致的假设是什么？人们得自己判断。但我认为那个一致的假设是：**我们是真诚地在尝试做正确的事。不完美，但从根本上，我们对"怎么做对的事"有一幅诚实而恳切的图景，并且正在执行这幅图景。**

**主持人**：那我们就在指数的另一头见吧。

**Dario 答**：但愿如此（Hopefully）。

#### 3.12.5 彩蛋：好莱坞明星梦

<a class="video-seek" data-t="4114">▶ 01:08:34</a>

**Emily Chang（彭博社）问**：你一直想当好莱坞明星，对吧？

**Dario 答**：对。CEO 这份工作有一件让我意外的 surprise：**你得多频繁地化妆**。这可不在我的 bingo 卡上。

**主持人**：就扑点粉嘛。

## 四、参考

### 4.1 访谈/课程信息

**人物专访**：Bloomberg The Circuit・Extended Interview ｜ 采访时间：2026-04-30（录制于 Anthropic 旧金山总部；2026-06-17 发布） ｜ 主持：Emily Chang ｜ 出场：Dario Amodei（Anthropic 联合创始人 & CEO） ｜ 本集：完整版（彭博原版 70 分钟；B站搬运全长 138 分钟，含片头与片尾） ｜ 来源：Bloomberg Originals（原版）／ bilibili・UP主 BusinessTime（搬运，2026-09-13 发布）

### 4.2 相关阅读

1. **原视频（B站中文搬运）**：https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1a5Y36MEWM
2. **原版视频**：[Inside the Mind of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei | The Circuit | Extended Interview（YouTube，2026-06-17）](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2VHFgyawPE) ・ [Bloomberg 官方页面](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-17/inside-the-mind-of-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-video)
3. **同场采访另一剪辑版**：[人物采访｜Dario Amodei × 彭博（2026-04-30）：童年、Claude Code 之父与就业冲击（节目版・含纪录片片段）](https://waterflows.me/ai-notes/2026-10-06-dario-amodei-bloomberg-20260430-episode.html)（47 分钟节目精编版，含旧金山童年、Presidio Park 创业起源、Daniela Amodei 与 Claude Code 作者 Boris Cherny 出镜等本篇未覆盖的纪录片片段）
4. **相关阅读**：[Dario Amodei: Machines of Loving Grace](https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace) ・ [Anthropic Economic Index](https://www.anthropic.com/economic-index) ・ [The Making of the Atomic Bomb（Richard Rhodes）](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Making_of_the_Atomic_Bomb)

### 4.3 原文语录（视频原话，whisper 转写）

> **问（离开 OpenAI 的真因）**：
> "When you feel that they're not honest, when you feel that they're not in it for the reasons that they say, when you see disturbing patterns of behavior, dishonesty, that makes it very hard to continue to work with the company, to continue to trust the company."
>
> （当你觉得对方不诚实、当他们做事的动机与嘴上说的不一致、当你看到令人不安的行为模式——那就很难再为这家公司工作、再信任这家公司了。）

> **问（SaaS 护城河）**：
> "If your moat is we wrote this complex software that no one else can write, like, good luck. You're not going to be able to defend that."
>
> （如果你的护城河是"我们写出了没人写得出的复杂软件"——祝你好运，你守不住的。）

> **问（领先的意义）**：
> "It's not about beating rivals for the sake of beating rivals. It's about having the ability to pull the ecosystem along with us."
>
> （不是为了打败对手而打败对手，而是为了拥有拉着整个生态一起走的能力。）

> **问（末日营销质疑）**：
> "The idea that this is cheap marketing is itself cheap marketing."
>
> （"这是廉价营销"这个说法本身才是廉价营销。）

> **问（战争红线）**：
> "We should use this technology in every way except the ways that undermine our own values... It's not worth democracies winning if democracies do those things."
>
> （除了破坏我们价值观的方式，我们应该用一切方式使用这项技术……如果民主国家靠做那些事来赢，那赢就没有意义。）

> **问（对技术的反应）**：
> "If you see someone having this kind of crazy yo-yo reaction, that's a sign that they were caught by surprise and that they're not serious."
>
> （如果你看到有人做出这种疯狂的 yo-yo 式反应，那说明他们被吓到了、他们不严肃。）

> **问（权力制衡）**：
> "This technology, I'm scared of companies having it, but I'm also scared of government having it."
>
> （这项技术，我怕公司拥有它，我同样怕政府拥有它。）

> **问（自我改进）**：
> "There's no moment where AI improves itself or runs out of control or becomes unsafe. What we have is an accelerating exponential."
>
> （不存在 AI 自我改进、失控、变得不安全的某个时刻。我们拥有的，是一条加速的指数曲线。）

### 4.4 原视频文字版（全量转写，点击展开）

> ⚠️ 转写说明：whisper large-v3-turbo 本地转写，英文原文。视频 00:00–05:25 片头音乐段（转写为《星期末》幻觉重复）与 01:08:52 之后字幕音乐段（转写为 "I don't know" 幻觉重复）已剔除；以下为访谈正文逐字稿，按"问（标注主题）→ 答（原文逐字）"组织，未删减、未改写。

<details style="margin:16px 0;">
<summary><strong>📄 原视频文字版全文（whisper 本地转写，点击展开）</strong></summary>

<pre style="white-space:pre-wrap;font-size:13px;line-height:1.8;">════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 当年辩论什么】
════════════════════════════════════════
What were you debating back then?
That was, I think, the time when, you know, Open Philanthropy Project was, you know, first being startup, which Holden was the lead of.
And I was at that time, you know, like a biological scientist.
So, you know, I was helping them with some of the stuff they were doing around kind of developing world health or biological research.
So, you know, I kind of advised on that stuff.
And, you know, what were the areas that were promising? What were the areas that were less promising?

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 离开 OpenAI 的真相】
════════════════════════════════════════
Your decision to leave OpenAI has become Silicon Valley lore. What really happened? Like, beyond the narrative, what were the issues? What did you disagree on?
Look, I'm going to say it, I'm going to say it very simply. You know, there are many difficult issues that, you know, you face when you're building powerful technology that Anthropic faces every day where we don't know whether we're making the right decision or the wrong decision.
So, you know, there are many valid disagreements to be had on safety. We certainly had some of those disagreements with them. But, you know, people that that that alone is not sufficient to leave.
People here have had disagreements with me. People here have disagreements with each other.
But when you feel that they're not honest, when you feel that they're not in it for the reasons that they say, when you see disturbing patterns of behavior, dishonesty, that makes it very hard to, you know, to continue to work with the company, to continue to trust the company.
And look, at the end of the day, why argue with someone when you don't have the same vision and you don't trust them?
Like, the way the way to resolve it is you go off and do your thing. They go off and do their thing.
And I am completely at peace with the idea that we're doing things our way and they're doing things their way.
We'll see who wins in the market and we'll see who wins in the court of public opinion.
I think those things speak louder than any drama about why who left what.
You know, we're providing an example of how to deploy this technology, you know, in what we think is a responsible way.
If they disagree, they should make that argument. And, you know, I think that's really all there is to say about it.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 印度峰会拒绝牵手】
════════════════════════════════════════
There was a moment at India's AI summit where you and Sam Altman appeared to refuse to hold hands on stage. What happened there?
What happened is that the summit was extremely disorganized. We all came up at the last minute and they like changed the order in which we were standing.
And then like they took a picture of us and then they ordered us all to like hold hands.
You know, if you've ever been to one of these summits, I'm not saying anything bad about India in particular, but like all of these kind of international type summits that have like heads of state are like super disorganized.
OK, but everyone else held hands. Come on.
I look, I don't know. I don't know what to tell you. OK, there was like, you know, Narendra Modi up there suddenly telling everyone to like telling everyone to hold hands.
All right. All right. Well, OK, look, Sam and Elon are suing each other. You don't like Sam.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 牵手与合作信任】
════════════════════════════════════════
It seems if the people building the most important technology in the world can't hold hands on stage, how can we trust you'll cooperate on existential risk?
So here's here's what I will tell you. There is a wide variance in the quality and the trustworthiness of the people building this technology.
I think this mean that, you know, different that no one trusts each other. I don't think it's right.
You know, I've known Demis Asabas, who builds the Gemini models, better competitor to quad models.
I've known him for 15 years. We've worked together on like, you know, a number of issues. We buy compute from Google.
We swap safety ideas all the time. So, you know, my my view of this is that one, there are some players who are more trustworthy than others.
And, you know, I think there are players outside Anthropic who, you know, who I trust, who I see as trustworthy.
What I think needs to happen is that the trustworthy actors need to need to get together and and put the untrustworthy actors in a position where they kind of have to adopt the same standards.
with a lot of experience. I've learned that there are some folks who don't do the right thing on their own.
But if there's a majority of the industry that's doing the right thing, then I think the rest of the industry is is kind of they're left in a position where there's not much they can do that that then come along.
There's like the positive version of it where you inspire other people. That's like Demis and me inspiring each other.
You know, he does Alpha Fold. We're trying to do something in bio as well. Right. We do interpretability research.
They start an interpretability research. It's not even competition. It's just it's just, you know, each company does something cool.
And the other companies like that's cool. We'd like to, you know, do that, too, and see if there's something new within that we can do.
So that's the kind of, you know, the carrot side of the race to the top.
Then there's the stick side or the implicit stick where you're like, OK, these guys are doing the right thing.
Those guys will look bad if they don't do the right thing. And often we see behaviors where they kind of grudgingly do the right thing while trying to pretend they're doing something different
and there's something bad or sinister about us. That is to be expected.
But I think that's the way we get the industry together and that's the way we get the industry to cooperate.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 押注企业与编码】
════════════════════════════════════════
Now, early on, others focused on fun, splashy consumer apps.
You made a bet on coding and enterprise and Claude Code is a hit. Claude Cowork is a hit.
Why did you make that bet? Was it a values decision or a business decision?
We started Anthropic. The thing that the base thing that mattered, the thing that always matters is we want it. We want to do this right.
But then you have to ask yourself, OK, in order to fund the very expensive, you know, creation of these models,
it needs to be a company that needs to have a business model.
Does the business model get in the way of the values?
There's always this question. But I think one of the things I learned is, you know, just from being at other companies and watching other companies is,
look, if you pick a business model that fundamentally conflicts with your values, you're going to have a hard time, right?
Either you betray your own values or you become irrelevant.
You know, you kind of end up in a catch 22 situation and there are ways out, there are ways to dodge.
But it's just it's just a hard situation.
It's far better to pick a business model that is compatible with your values.
And so when we thought about it, we said, look, you know, we've seen the world of social media, the consumer world.
It really seems to, you know, encourage engagement, even addiction.
You know, the slop we've seen with AI video models.
It's like what's going on?
Is it want to maximize the number of minutes that you're paying attention to?
Because that's the advertising revenue driven incentive.
Whereas if we look at enterprise, look, I mean, you know, we want to make these models useful to people.
If I think of all the positive things you can do with AI, right?
I warn a lot about the negative things, but ultimately we think the positive things will outweigh the negative things.
Many of those are basically fall under the banner of enterprise.
You know, we want to use AI to, you know, cure diseases that we couldn't cure before.
Right. Well, that's working with biotech.
It's working with pharma.
It's working with academic research groups.
All of those are enterprises. Right.
We want to use AI to like, you know, to make energy cheaper and more efficient.
That's that's all enterprise.
You know, we want to use AI to help with education.
Most of that is enterprise.
You know, we want to use AI to, you know, to address, you know, health and developing world.
Well, they're nonprofits, but those are basically enterprises.
We want to increase economic growth.
That that is basically enterprise as well.
And then I think there's another factor, which is that enterprises care a lot about trust and long term relationship.
Right. Consumer can have this, you know, almost this gimmicky aspect to it.
Right.
Where with enterprise, it's like what matters is you build a relationship where, you know, you work with, you work with a company for many years.
You know, you deliver on what you say.
They deliver on what they say.
And they basically trust you.
And so it's very synergistic with our goal of, you know, deploying these models in a positive and safe way.
And so I think it serves us well to have this business model that largely aligns with our values.
Not that there aren't conflicts sometimes, not that there aren't hard choices we have to make.
But I think the number of such choices, it's much lower than it would be otherwise.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 长期领先可能吗】
════════════════════════════════════════
A developer can switch from Claude to GPT or Gemini in an afternoon.
Is it really possible to have a long term lead in this industry?
And, you know, how long would it take a serious competitor to replicate what you've built?
Model quality is the most important thing.
Like, we're very far ahead right now on model quality.
There is some amount of inertia, but I've never relied on that.
Right.
I've never relied on like the, you know, the anthropic has never relied on like, oh, this is sticky and people won't switch.
I think you want to have a better model.
You want to have a better product.
And, you know, we see the growth rates haven't inflected at all.
If anything, they've gone up at least at the time of taping this interview.
So, you know, I think I tend to think that is the most important thing.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · SaaS 大屠杀】
════════════════════════════════════════
Soon after Claude Cowork was released, $285 billion in market value vanished overnight.
Traders called it the sasspocalypse.
If AI continues improving at this pace, how much of traditional software gets replaced and how fast?
Yeah.
So, you know, this is one of these questions that it's kind of very hard to predict in advance.
Right.
If you could predict it perfectly in advance, then people would and they'd make a huge amount of money on the market and they'd always be right.
So, you know, no one knows exactly what's going to happen.
But I would note a few things.

All of these traditional software companies have a number of moats.
I think what's going to happen is some of these moats are going to go away, but others are going to stay around.
Right.
The ability to quickly write software, I definitely think that's going away.
Right.
If your moat is we wrote this complex software that no one else can write, like, good luck.
You're not going to be able to defend that.
But I think folks have customer relationships.
Folks have know how of how, you know, of how the field works.
Folks have unique domain knowledge.
So I think my advice to all of these folks is obviously, you know, don't be complacent.
Don't ignore it.
Make a list of all your moats and be very aware that some of them are going to go away while others are going to become relatively more important because there are limiting factors.
And there may also there may also be new moats.
And I think those that deftly respond that, you know, lean into the list of moats that are still present as well as the new ones will do well.
I think those that are complacent that kind of, you know, just delude themselves that what worked in the past will will continue to work there.
They're they're not going to have a good time.
So that is that is the advice I would give.
And, you know, I think at the end of the day, I would guess I mean, it depends what you call SaaS and what you don't call SaaS.
But like I would guess that the software industry gets larger, not smaller, although there will be some big losers.
Explain that.
I just think the pie is getting bigger.
Right.
Like I think I think with A.I., like the pie is getting bigger.
The existing incumbents may be smaller in relative terms.
Some of them may may go down in value.
Some of them may even may even go out of business if they don't adapt in the right way.
But, you know, I think you I think you see this often when growth is really fast.
Right. If the you know, if the if if if what's possible with A.I. grows by 10x, it's very easy for an existing incumbent industry to go up by 1.5x.
Right. Just just, you know, not as much as the whole big pie is growing.
So I think that may happen.
That that's not to say we won't have some big losers.
I think those who don't adapt to put their heads in the sand, who don't kind of see what's coming, who don't identify the moats they have.
They're going to have a really hard time.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 金主说了算吗】
════════════════════════════════════════
Your biggest backers are companies like Amazon and Google and Microsoft and Nvidia.
These are companies that all have their own agendas.
They are partners and rivals.
You have huge commercial milestones tied to funding.
Who's really calling the shots?
There have been a number of cases where we've really spoken our minds about what we think.
You know, I've been very outspoken about the need for export controls on ships to China.
Right. I I I say this because I think it would be really bad for America, for the state of democracy in the world, for China to be ahead in A.I. capabilities.
And, you know, it's it's like some of the chip makers obviously don't agree with that view, but it hasn't stopped me from saying it.
I'm saying it again now, even after we've signed more partnerships.
What they know is that we always work with them.
We've been good partners.
You know, we can work together.
I'm sure they wish we didn't say these things, but these things are what are what I believe.
What are you going to do?
You know, they're they're at the end of the day.
They want the you know, they benefit from these deals as much as we do.
You know, look, we're all adults here.
We can work together on one thing while disagreeing about another thing.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 万亿估值】
════════════════════════════════════════
Bloomberg's reported that you're at valuations that are higher than open A.I.
We're talking nearly a trillion dollars for a five year old startup.
How do you make sense of that number?
And why do you need that much money if you know you're more disciplined on compute?
You have a faster path to profit.
The compute is ramping up very quickly.
Right.
So it can both be the case that the fundamentals of the business look good.
But in you know, in a year you'll have three times as much compute as, you know, three times or four times.
I'm not going to give exact numbers, but like these compute ramps are very fast and we have every expectation that the revenue, you know, ramp will meet and exceed those.
But raising money is is kind of the buffer against this cone of uncertainty.
So it's a totally rational thing to do.
It's it's a very small dilution to the business.
And it logically is not at all the same thing.
In fact, it's compatible with the opposite as you know that there's anything wrong with the fundamentals of the business.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 算力追赶】
════════════════════════════════════════
There have been reports of server strain, reliability issues, people complaining about running out of tokens.
You said other companies are YOLOing on infrastructure.
Do you actually have what you need or are you playing catch up?
So one of these things about compute is there's a market in compute.
Right. So, you know, my view is that over a period of time, even longer than a couple months, like, you know, we can get large amounts of compute.
What one thing that's worth saying here is, you know, I don't think we bought too little compute by any reasonable standards.
So, you know, we were planning for a 10x a year growth in compute.
10x a year is what we expect.
That isn't what we've seen over the first quarter of 2026.
We saw a greater than 3x growth in revenue quarterly, just in a quarter, not annualized 3x in the quarter, which, of course, 3 to the fourth power is 80x over the course of the year.
We didn't plan for 80x annualized growth.
It would not have been rational to plan for 80x annualized growth because that means if you only get 10x, you know, that you have eight times less.
So we're in a locally extreme, you know, explosion of compute.
That's not going to continue.
If that continued, you know, you just get to revenue.
By the end of the year, you get your revenue numbers that no company on earth.
I don't think that's going to happen.
It just it just can't.
But you can have these short periods where it's like, oh, my God, like, you know, this is faster growth than we ever, ever possibly anticipated.
But I don't know.
You saw the compute deals with Google.
You saw the compute deals with Amazon.
You know, there are more that we kind of can and will do.
Like, you know, the market's liquid.
Like if if if, you know, if you're able to use compute really well and there's the demand, you'll get your compute.
It might just take a month or two.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 超越宿敌】
════════════════════════════════════════
Does it feel good to surpass your arch rival?
Look, I we have a lot of difficult challenges in front of us.
There's this race to the top idea that we're trying to pull other companies along with us.
And I think we've seen that we have pulled them along with us.
Sometimes they don't admit that that's what they're doing.
Sometimes they copy us while they're attacking us.
But but this pull is very valuable.
And so I think the value of being the preeminent company, both commercially and in terms of models, you know, it's it's not about beating rivals for the sake of beating rivals.
It's it's about having the ability to pull the ecosystem along with us.
And we hope that we can do more of that in the future.
But winning has to feel just a little bit good.
I mean, look, we're always trying to succeed. Right.
Like we're always trying to you know, we're not we're not trying to fail here. Right.
Like I'm not someone who believes we should shut this technology down.
We shouldn't build it like, you know, we we we we we, you know, we we exist within a free enterprise system.
And and, you know, there's there's nothing there's nothing wrong with this.
We just have to mitigate the risks of the models. Right.
And so it's always been the balance between the two.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 坚守价值观】
════════════════════════════════════════
Now, for most of Anthropix history, you were the underdog.
I imagine it's easier to take the moral high ground when you have nothing to lose at this scale.
How hard is it to stay true to your values?
What I would say is that, you know, I've put a lot of time into thinking about how that's the case.
You know, as as as companies scale, you know, I've been paranoid at every scale at every scale of the company.
There's some new challenge. There's some new way the company can lose either.
It's it's kind of will to win just commercially or kind of the core of its values.
I'm worried about both because I see them as synergistic.
I actually see the fact that we've been able to make such good models as the thing that that allows us to assert our values in a way that works.
As the company grows, as it gets bigger. There are lots of pitfalls here.
There are lots of ways to go wrong, not because me or the co-founders of the company's leaders values change,
but because the composition of the company changes very fast.
So I spend probably half of my time just talking to the company about the culture of Anthropix and how the culture works. Right.
When you're growing this fast, you're hiring a bunch of people from big tech companies.
If you don't tell them how Anthropix operates, they'll simply recapitulate the only thing they know,
which is how to operate at the companies that they came from.
And so this is a constant struggle and a constant challenge.
And, you know, it's like, you know, me and Daniela's maybe number one top priority is figuring out how to preserve this,
because we recognize that this is the core of who we are in the long run.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 产品节奏】
════════════════════════════════════════
Your product velocity is insane. You're shipping so much so fast. How are you doing it?
I would say two things. The first is, you know, we have a unified company. We have a unified culture.
You know, I think we've gotten, you know, grown larger while still being incredibly efficient.
Everyone's still being on the same page, like just the cultural and organizational unity.
I would say that's the biggest factor. And I would say the second biggest factor is Claude itself,
that we're now using Claude to help, you know, develop our models and, you know, make them more efficient and quickly develop products.
There's all kinds of new practices you have to develop. You know, we're still new.
We're still new at it. But, you know, it's producing it's producing a lot of acceleration and increasingly producing reliable acceleration.
And so those are the two factors I would point to.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 最疯狂的 AI 事件】
════════════════════════════════════════
Will you tell me the most wild thing you've seen AI do?
I think some of the wildest stuff I've seen is around biology and medicine.
I've seen a number of cases, including Daniela, actually, where Claude diagnosed a medical problem that, you know, a bunch of fancy doctors had missed.
And on the biology side, like the models are starting to get surprisingly good at like, you know, you know, tasks like drug design or, you know, computational chemistry or things like that.
And I'm just like, wow. You know, as someone who used to be a biologist, I look at it and I'm like, wow, that's hard.
Like you need a lot of training to do that. And like, Claude is getting good at it.
And that's one area where I think we're going to get a hell of a lot of benefit.
Like that's the positive for AI.
We're going to get these huge, enormous benefits. Life is going to get better.
The quality of human experience is going to get better.
A century of scientific progress.
A century of scientific progress and a century of progress and what it's like to be human.
Like go back to 1900. Think of all the problems we had in 1900s, all the reasons people died prematurely, all the problems they had to suffer, all the material deprivation that we don't have to deal with today.
Then think of another hundred years of that. I really believe this century of scientific and medical progress.
If we can get through this and I think we will, I'm increasingly optimistic.
We're going to have a much, much better world.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 用 Claude 写作】
════════════════════════════════════════
I know how much you love writing. You're known for your essays. Do you use Claude to help write?
I do. I have not gotten to the point where I actually allow text directly written by Claude in, in, because I, I, I just have such a specific style that I'm, I'm a little picky about it, but I basically use Claude to like, you know, to help me brainstorm, to help me think through the themes, to help me kind of, oh, you know, what are some references I could use for this?
Um, so it, it, it kind of plays a supportive role. I don't know how far we are from Claude being able to write better than me. We're not quite there yet, but, but, you know, I think, I think certainly it's coming.
I love writing too. And I, you know, I feel like writing, it helps you struggle through ideas. There is a lot of critical thinking involved in that. Do we lose that if we let Claude do it for us?
I'm, I'm, I'm a little worried about that. And in fact, that's half the reason I write myself. It certainly is for external audiences. Many people read what I write, but it is just as much to clarify my own thinking so that I kind of know what to do next and to create a common reference point across me and others.
I think we're still grappling with the question of how exactly do we use AI in a way that kind of preserves those benefits. I think the thing I'm doing now does that, or I use Claude for research and I use Claude for kind of, you know, how do I help organize my own thoughts?
I think if we just used it end to end, like write an essay about the risks of AI, first of all, it wouldn't write the things that I think, but also I would, I would exactly lose that benefit.
There's some way as the models get better, I think probably to, to use them directly, much more directly in the writing and yet still preserve those benefits. But I think it's going to be a subtle thing. It won't be all one thing. We'll have to kind of figure it out over time.
I think we could have this very unusual combination of very fast GDP growth and high unemployment or at least underemployment or, you know, low wage job, a lot of low wage jobs, high inequality.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 50% 初级白领岗位】
════════════════════════════════════════
You've been really direct about job loss. AI could eliminate half of all entry level white collar jobs in the next one to five years. That was a year ago. AI has moved incredibly fast. Is it still 50% or is it higher?
I've always said, and you know, if you go back to those original clips, they always get like, you know, cut out of context in like the three seconds. But like, you know, the real statement was always, I don't know what's going to happen, but this is an order of magnitude for how crazy things could be.
Also, I always talk about all the things we can do in response to this, right? I've talked about token tax and working with enterprises to adjust people. And I'm a little skeptical of retraining programs, but like we should throw them in the mix.
Macroeconomic policy. Even from the beginning, I always talked about solutions, but you know, somehow there's this tendency in the human psychology to clip the three seconds of like doom is coming.
Macroeconomic policy. I think doom is coming. So my message is just definitely not doom is coming. My message is like, this is something, you know, that we should see coming that we're worried about and that we need to actually respond to positively.
You know, I don't know exactly, but I'm still pretty concerned. I'm still the same order of concern. You know, we are seeing right now that AI is making people more productive, but that's the usual hump.
If you go back, you know, to the kind of industrial revolution, you know, I wrote about this in Adolescence of Technology. You automate 90% of the job. Great. People are 10 times more productive in the other 10% because they're 10 times more leveraged.
But eventually it gets close to 100%. Now the sequel to that is, well, then you have to find something else for them to do. I don't know about the long run. I'm truly uncertain about that.
But I do think there are types of adaptation. Like one thing I'll talk about is, you know, software engineers within Anthropic. We're going through this transition right now where, you know, right now AI makes the software engineers more productive, even though AI writes all the code or almost all the code.
But still it makes people more productive. But we're already starting to see the beginning of like, you know, there may be some people that it's not making more productive, that it's better for the AI to just do the thing.
So that's one side of it. The other side of it, though, is what do we need more demand for? You know, there's something we call a forward deployed engineer or in like applied AI solutions architect, where their job is a mix of technical work and talking to customers.
There's a lot of demand for that because there's a lot of customers and we're growing very quickly.
Now, does every person who is in the pure software engineering quite work for this? You know, it's not perfect. It's not one to one.
That gives you a flavor of there's going to be a hell of a lot of disruption, but things will also adjust.
Which wins out? I don't know. But the reason it's important to warn about it is that that's how we can respond.
That's how we can make policy right both within anthropic and macroeconomically for the whole world.
We want to put out carefully considered thoughts. We don't want to say things that people don't believe will actually do.
We don't want to say things that are half baked. We want to think carefully about what should actually be done about these these problems.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 岗位冲击图表】
════════════════════════════════════════
You put out this chart showing potential job disruption like sales, finance, you know, which jobs go away, who gets replaced and what new jobs are created.
So no one knows for sure because, you know, the economy is unpredictable. It's the same as the stock market.
Right. There are these kind of decentralized processes that you you don't really know ahead of time.
What are the pieces of the job that people are still going to be able to do?
But what I would say broadly is that, you know, anywhere that you have, you know, these kind of entry level white collar, you know, whether it's banking, whether it's finance, whether it's, you know, there's there's you know, there's there's going to be a lot of potential for AI to first make people more productive.
But, you know, then then then then there's going to be, you know, then there's be a wholesale AI can do the job and then we're going to have to think about, well, you know, what is it that people can do?
And I think we need to plan about that ahead of time.
We're already doing it when we talk to enterprise customers.
We see choices that they face.
They face the choice of, you know, should I save costs, which often means hiring less people, basically do the same thing with less resources, or should we do more things with the same amount of resources?
And we always when we can try to push them to doing more with the same amount of resources, because basically that means like hire the same number of people or maybe even more people.
But just do do kind of kind of do new things, pushing them towards the positive sum.
The thing that that we have going for us here is the pie is going to expand a lot.
And so because the pie is going to expand a lot, there are probably going to be places where people can go.
It's just a matter of finding them fast enough.
It's the size of the disruption.
It's it's going to be big.
And that's what I'm warning people about.
But we kind of we have to solve that matching problem.
So play this out for me a little bit.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 五年后的美国】
════════════════════════════════════════
You know, you wake up in five years.
What does this country look like?
What are those people doing?
Yeah, because if there's that much unemployment, is that not how revolutions start?
Yeah, no, this is the outcome we want to prevent.
This is absolutely the outcome we want to prevent.
You know, I think I think there's I think there's a few places.
None of them are guaranteed.
We're not sure.
But there's the physical world, right?
Like things that are in the physical world.
Yes, there's a robotics revolution as well.
But it's a lot slower than what's happening in AI.
People always talk about building data centers.
But like when processing information of any type becomes a lot easier, maybe the restriction
is going to be things in the physical world.
And so we need a lot of more people to make, build, manufacture things in the physical world.
Anything that's human centered.
I think that's going to be a big deal.
Right.
I hear all these stories about AI found something that my doctor couldn't find.
And I feel happy.
But like but there's people really want to talk to other humans, particularly over kind
of important things.
Right.
Maybe I can do better customer service.
But nevertheless, people or at least some people want to talk to humans.
So these kind of human relationship driven jobs, like I think those are going to be important.
Right.
And I think there will be some effort by the humans to kind of direct the AIs.
Right.
At some level, it has to be in line with someone's values and someone's intentions.
And so I think there's going to be some role there, although I don't know how thin versus
how thick it will be.
I think it's very hard to say.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 末日营销质疑】
════════════════════════════════════════
There has been a lot of pushback.
And I know you've said you're trying to warn people.
But that, you know, Jensen Huang said you're conflating tasks with jobs.
Other folks have said this, you know, it's sort of doom marketing that benefits Anthropic.
So I want to be really clear and push back hard against this.
The whole picture of there are risks to job loss.
And here are some ideas.
I mean, we haven't fully fleshed out the ideas because I want to get them right.
But Anthropic has come up with lots of ideas.
We've had economic grants.
We have the economic index.
I talk about the possible ways to address these risks from tax and macroeconomic policy
to what the new jobs are.
In the adolescence of technology, I lay out, you know, I have like five pages where I lay
out the difference between tasks and jobs, why this time is different than other times,
a list of six different things we can do from private philanthropy to government action.
I talk about the problems.
I talk about the solutions.
But social media, which I detest, which I detest as a category, people have these three-second
clips from, you know, from a year ago.
They don't actually read the essays or they prey on the idea that social media, I've written
much more carefully about these things where I talk about the risks.
The idea that this is cheap marketing is itself cheap marketing.
This is laziness.
This is failure to engage with serious intellectual work.
And I think that is part of the problem.
Again, I think it's part of the disease of Silicon Valley.
It's been caught up in this social media world of three seconds.
And so people only respond to it or they think they only have to respond to it.
Again, I think it's very dangerous.
And we fail to have a mature conversation.
Instead, people just lazily see this like three-second clip.
And they're like, oh, this is what Daria was saying.
It's so stupid.
It's so unserious.
And whenever someone says something like that, I take them less seriously.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 国防部合同】
════════════════════════════════════════
One of the leading AI companies in the world is deeply embedded in many different aspects
of U.S. national security across military operations.
A standoff between Anthropic and the Pentagon over AI military safeguards is ramping up.
You've had a longstanding anti-war stance dating all the way back to your days at Caltech.
And yet, you were one of the first AI companies to sign a contract with the Department of Defense
to operate on classified networks that the U.S. uses to fight wars.
Explain that.
Yeah.
So, you know, what I would say is, look, I mean, the world changes.
Like, you know, my view of this technology, you know, when I see Russia invading Ukraine,
it worries me that we have a kind of resurgent authoritarian bloc,
that they're very aggressive and that we need to defend ourselves.
That is something that I, you know, have believed for a while now, continue to believe.
And that's why across both administrations, you know, I may not agree with every policy
of either administration, but, you know, that's why we've generally been supportive of this.
We certainly don't do it for the money.
It's a huge pain.
You know, even putting aside the lawfare, it's just a huge pain to get up on government networks
for not that much money.
So we did it because we cared about it.
But similarly, because we're doing it because we cared about it, there need to be limitations
on the use of the technology.
And the formulation that I used in adolescence of technology, we should use this technology
in every way except the ways that undermine our own values, right?
And our red lines of mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, those are things that
I believe undermine our values.
It's not worth democracies winning if democracies do those things.
And so that's the balance that I see.
And that's the stand that we took.
And it explains both why we were the first to work with Department of War and why there
were some things we wouldn't do when others were willing to do those things.
I think you need to pick a stand and stand your ground.
This idea of, you know, companies that seesaw from we won't do anything with the government
to suddenly we're doing absolutely everything with the government.
I don't get it.
You should pick your principles and stick with them.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · Palantir 与监控】
════════════════════════════════════════
You've been working with Palantir since 2024.
That's right.
You know, their technology is used by ICE, police departments in Gaza.
Is Claude being used for surveillance in other ways?
We don't work with ICE either through Palantir or anyone else.
We don't work with CBP.
I don't believe we work in Gaza.
You know, we're very careful about, you know, scoping our engagements to things that we believe in.
So, you know, you drew your red lines.
The president banned you from the federal government.
The Pentagon labeled you a supply chain risk.
Open AI jumped in and signed the contract that you wouldn't.
What does winning this fight actually look like?
You know, I don't think there's any winning this fight for a private company.
Like, this isn't a fight Anthropic is trying to win or thinks about winning or losing.
This is more a, I won't even call it a fight.
This is more a debate about what the proper use of AI by the government is.
And AI is an emerging new technology.
We don't understand the ways in which it's reliable or unreliable.
We don't understand the ways in which it promotes our values or undermines our values.
And so one of the things that I thought was important was to establish a precedent on some of the use cases we think are good, which frankly is most of them, and some of the use cases that we're concerned about.
And as I've said, we've already seen, you know, you can only do so much with a contract, right?
As we've seen, someone else can sign a contract that doesn't respect your same red lines.
But what it has done is raised awareness for the issue.
And then we have serious bipartisan efforts in Congress attempting to ban some of the things that we're concerned about and attempting to set guardrails.
Again, I don't want to talk about this as a fight, but that's kind of winning the effort to get our country to think more carefully about what is appropriate use of this technology.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 意识形态疯子】
════════════════════════════════════════
Anthropic is run by an ideological lunatic who shouldn't have a sole decision-making of what we do.
Do you mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left-wing nutjobs?
You know, I've been called worse things than that all the time.
You know, people can call me or Anthropic, you know, people can call me or Anthropic whatever they want.
The two things that matter are we're successful as a company and, you know, we stand up for our values.
Like, I actually, in some ways my life is really easy because when those are your, you know, those are the two things you're trying to do, it's really simple, right?
Like, you know, you just, you always know where you stand.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 1000 到 5000 目标】
════════════════════════════════════════
A U.S. official has said, with the help of LLM, the U.S. military has gone from being able to hit 1,000 targets a day to 5,000 targets a day.
That means Claude can help kill more people more quickly.
Are you comfortable with that?
I think there's two things here, right?
There is the ability of the United States, you know, to be more effective militarily.
I am supportive of that ability.
I think having that ability be stronger doesn't cause wars, it deters wars.
Like, you know, basically you're asking, like, you know, do you believe in this country, right?
Do you want this country to be a more powerful actor rather than a less powerful actor on the world stage?
I do. I'm a patriot.
There's a separate question, which is, you know, are there particular policies that the U.S. government is engaged in that I might support or not support?
Obviously, I support some of them, and I don't support others of them.
It's not up to me.
If we provide a technology, you know, the DOW made this point, and we actually agree with them.
If we provide a technology, it's not up to us to say you can do this military operation and you can't do that military operation.
Now, I might privately believe that this military operation makes sense and that military operation is a bad idea, but we're not going to deny the technology.
You have to leave policy in the hands of the military decision makers.
What you can do is to assert some high-level boundaries that, you know, for us, prevent the use cases that seem inconsistent with our values, with our country's values, and promote the use cases that we think, you know, we think encourage our values.
So that's how we think about it.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 伊朗女子学校空袭】
════════════════════════════════════════
Bloomberg has reported that Claude is being used by the U.S. military in the war in Iran to do AI-assisted targeting via platform made by Palantir, MavenSmart system.
In February, a U.S. missile reportedly hit a girl's school in Iran, killing more than 150 people, most of them children.
Did Claude play a role in that strike?
We—look, we don't have access to, you know, we don't know exactly how, you know, these models were used.
You know, obviously, like, you know, these things that, you know, mistakes that happen in warfare are really, really terrible.
Like, this is a really terrible thing to happen.
If that doesn't make clear why we have to, you know, stand up for use cases that, you know, we don't support, like, you know, we were willing to risk the future of our company to, like, limit how, you know, these models are used.
And, you know, what you're talking about is a use case that doesn't even violate our red lines.
We're worried that there will be 100 times as much, you know, with use cases that do violate our red lines.
Now, you know, you know, again, again, I would say I think overall the use of these—the use of these models is appropriate.
I think it's good on net, you know, but military decision makers make terrible mistakes, even at the best of times.
And I don't know if we're in the best of times.
Like, there are several things we can talk about.
We can talk about making red lines that, you know, prevent uses of the models that are more likely to lead to those problems, right?
If we had allowed, you know, fully—if we had just given in, which almost every other company now has, to fully autonomous weapons, right?
This is like a human.
What we've seen here is Claude assists, but a human makes the final call.
So a human made that final call, not Claude.
Imagine if you had a world in which—not Claude, because we haven't allowed it, but someone else's AI model, the AI model just makes the decision and the human never sees it.
That's what we were standing up for.
That's what we were fighting against.
I would also say, you know, there's a separate thing here.
Again, I don't think procurement is the right way to do it, but, like, you know, we need to make sure that, you know, it's a matter of interest to the American people, not to me as a supplier of the technology, but to the American people that are military decision makers don't make these mistakes, that they operate reliably, that, you know, they choose wisely what to do.
So, again, you know, that's of concern to me as a citizen.
As a supplier of the technology, like, you know, the government uses Microsoft Excel a lot.
You know, if I said, you can use Excel for, you know, this military operation, but not—you can't realistically do that.
But hopefully that gives you a sense of how we think about it.
This school had a website.
You could have found it in a Google search.
Like, shouldn't Claude have spotted that?
Shouldn't AI or whatever technology they used have spotted that?
And does it speak to a scarier issue about using technology as a shortcut in war?
Look, look, what I'm going to say is, you know, and, you know, I don't know.
This relies on, you know, maybe classified knowledge that I don't have.
But, you know, the principle that we have established, and I think the principle that was obeyed here is a human makes the final decision.
I don't know what role Claude or any other AI had, but, like, if this isn't an illustration why that principle is so important, I don't know what is.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · AI 与三战】
════════════════════════════════════════
Is AI warfare more likely to stop World War III, a war between the U.S. and China, or is it more likely to make it happen?
I would say on balance it is more likely to stop it.
But if we have no limits on how it's used, then I think, you know, it could be more likely to cause it.
You know, you've seen Dr. Strangelove, right?
The premise of it was like you have a doomsday device that automatically fires nuclear weapons when it thinks nuclear weapons are being fired at it.
What could go wrong, right?
Again, I get to this lethal, you know, fully autonomous weapons thing.
I think the way conflicts happen is that, you know, the two sides jump at each other.
They misunderstand each other.
And when we don't have proper oversight of this technology, I think those kinds of accidents are more likely to happen.
Now, I think if AI is used in an appropriate way in not even warfare, but think of just intelligence collection, you know, let's say we're able to, you know, predict an invasion of Taiwan or a new movement in Ukraine.
Like, you know, our adversaries will think twice about, you know, about conducting some kind of invasion or military operation if we know everything that they're doing.
And so I think superior intelligence really can deter conflict here.
Superior ability to respond can deter conflict.
I continue to be a believer in these things.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · Mythos】
════════════════════════════════════════
Anthropics making headlines almost on a weekly basis, notably now around mythos, of course.
This is the latest and greatest anthropic model, and it is capable of going through all the links of the cyber kill chain and doing so autonomously.
You said mythos was too powerful to release to the public.
What surprised you most about it?
I think the thing that surprised me most about it was the models had been climbing in their ability to find vulnerabilities and, importantly, turn those vulnerabilities into exploits,
which people only talk about the vulnerabilities, they don't often talk about turning the vulnerabilities into exploits, which it was quite good at.
So the things that surprised me are we saw this huge jump.
It was a particularly large jump.
And without us really prompting them at all, some of the early companies that we gave this to said things like,
this is a super weapon.
You should have to own a gun license to use it.
Please don't release this.
Like, the demand to do this was coming from the companies we gave it to who were finding so many critical vulnerabilities and exploitability around these critical vulnerabilities that, you know,
they were basically asking us not to release it.
Now, to be clear, because things always get distorted in the world of social media, the goal isn't to keep this locked up forever.
We're kind of gradually trying to open this up to a wider and wider set of people.
And eventually, we believe that we should release Mythos to, you know, to a general audience, but with kind of strong cyber safeguards.
Now, a concern is today's cyber safeguards, which we did release on Opus 4.7, which is a good cyber model, but a substantially weaker one,
these can be jailbroken.
And we're a little concerned about some of the other companies who think this is a sufficient defense.
Because, yeah, it works sometimes, but, you know, we all know that these classifiers can be jailbroken or gone around.
And our own testing, as well as, frankly, our assessment of the models that other, the defenses that other companies have put in place,
suggests that these defenses are not strong enough yet.
And that's what we're waiting for, getting the defenses to the point where we really have confidence in them.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 开源复刻质疑】
════════════════════════════════════════
There was a lot of pushback on it.
You know, you have researchers saying they were able to replicate it using, you know, cheaper open source models.
Some folks say OpenAI, you know, has these capabilities already.
You know, what do you say to folks who say this is a grand PR play?
The claim that it could be replicated with open source models, that's just incredibly false.
So the idea is Mythos looks across the whole code base and finds something.
Some guy went on Twitter and said, well, if you point an open source model at exactly the line of code that Mythos finds,
then it finds the same issue.
That isn't the prompt.
That isn't the question, right?
Like, that is not the same thing.
The ultimate test of this is, like, we go to companies, we go to open source repos,
we found 271 new vulnerabilities in Firefox.
We found many thousands within the private, you know, companies who haven't fixed them yet or can't disclose them yet.
Like, no one found those 271 vulnerabilities with the previous models.
So, like, the actual workflow of what actually works in practice as opposed to, you know,
okay, I find the exact line that Mythos found, you know, I found the needle in the haystack.
Something else can now pick up the needle.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · PR 炒作质疑】
════════════════════════════════════════
But what about the folks who say this was just good marketing?
You know, we have suffered enormously commercially from not releasing this model.
This model has incredibly accelerated research within Anthropic and production in the next models.
It would do the same in the outside world if we were to release it.
This has hurt us enormously commercially.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 还能防御吗】
════════════════════════════════════════
If this helps defenders, it also helps attackers.
Can we defend anything anymore?
What I would say is that the reason that we're giving Mythos to defenders before we give it to attackers is to patch all the bugs.
I don't know.
As the models get better, there may be more and more bugs to be found, but there's only so many.
They're finite, right?
It's like you have this surface and there's only so many holes in it.
You patch all the holes and the surface becomes very hard to attack,
as well as the code itself is written with the powerful models.
So it then becomes very hard to find flaws in or break into.
So I think on the other side of this, hopefully six months or a year from now,
we have a much more secure internet ecosystem than we had in the past.
We're trying to get to that world, and we're doing the best we can to open up Mythos to new cyber defenders.
We've been talking to the government.
We're very respectful of their recommendations.
They're slowing the pace at which we open it up because they're worried about counterintelligence risk.
I think that's sensible.
I think all serious people here understand that there's real tradeoffs here.
We see a lot of sniping from people on Twitter and from other AI companies.
You look at what they're saying and the inconsistency with what they're doing.
They're not serious people.
They're not seriously engaging with the serious tradeoffs that we have here.
Look, I have customers calling me up every day saying,
I want access to Mythos.
I have countries calling me up saying, I want access to Mythos.
And I have the U.S. government and my security team saying,
no, wait a minute, there's risk to it.
You know, I'm not saying one side or the other is right.
I think it's somewhere in between.
Both sides have valid points.
But there's a real challenge here, and we need to face it together as a society,
not accuse things of being cheap marketing,
not use cheap marketing to try and counterposition,
which some of the other companies are doing.
It just all shows an incredible lack of gravitas and maturity.
We need to all face this moment together.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 不舒服的妥协】
════════════════════════════════════════
Have you had to make tradeoffs already that you're not entirely comfortable with?
Throughout the entire history of Anthropic has been tradeoffs, right?
The entire history of Anthropic, right?
Where, you know, in some ideal world, you would prefer to,
before you release the first chatbot,
you could spend years studying every possible thing that could go wrong with it.
Now, we did delay.
We did delay the initial release of Claude,
but we did it for a few months.
So what I'm saying is everything is a tradeoff.
You know, the extreme ends of the spectrum are completely insane, right?
And so everything is a tradeoff.
What I would say is that now that we're in, you know,
what I would describe as a commercially leading position,
I'm actually, and Daniela,
are actually doing all we can to move the dial even further towards being careful.
That's what the Mythos release was about, right?
It's very hard to do something like that if you're not the leading player.
And so I think you're going to see more things, more things like that.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 政府接管】
════════════════════════════════════════
You know, there's this argument, why wouldn't the government take you over?
Why would they let a private company control technology that's so powerful?
So I actually think that's a very, that's a very serious question.
And I share those concerns.
I don't think the government should outright take us over.
But I would put it this way.
I would say, just to back up and describe the situation,
every previous powerful technology we've seen in history
was either built by the government or originated with the government.
So nuclear weapons, obviously, you know, initially built by the government
and pretty much built by the government after that.
But even like the internet, GPS, cell phones,
all the R&amp;D was, you know, was done in the labs,
in the federal labs, in the universities.
AI is the first technology that's been built in the private sector.
and where government has not really had a serious role
and is coming in late to the game.
I think that's actually a dangerous and unstable situation.
It is not the situation I would have chosen.
There's not really an alternative like, you know,
this technology is possible to build.
Our adversaries are building.
It has economic value.
Like, it's going to get built.
The issue is the government not doing it,
not the private sector doing it.
I think we need to think about checks and balances on power.
So I think there need to be checks and balances on the power of the AI companies, right?
We have this thing, the long-term benefit trust.
What that is, is it's a set of basically,
it's a body that can appoint the majority of the board members
and remove the majority of the board members.
So it basically, essentially, if you thread it through,
has the power to fire me.
And what we're looking at is we're introducing some elements,
you know, nowhere near all the elements,
but we're introducing a little bit of the elements of like public governance, right?
Where it's like, you know, you're accountable to someone
who just doesn't, who doesn't just have stock in the company.
So that's very important.
And that structure is going to continue no matter what happens to the company.
That's on the AI,
and we encourage other companies to have similar structures.
On the government side, I think we need checks and balances.
You know, there are efforts in Congress that have been announced
to enact those red lines, right?
So I really think the, you know, the legislative branch
and the judicial branch need to exert themselves
because this technology, I'm scared of companies having it,
but I'm also scared of government having it.
And then the companies need to provide checks on government,
and the government needs to provide checks on companies.
You know, we need basic regulation of the technology.
You know, I think we need to start doing pre-release testing,
required pre-release testing, testing and auditing of the models.
You know, it's very funny to me how there's a particular group of people
in the tech world in Silicon Valley who started, you know,
they started with a position of like even having transparency around this technology,
even export control.
You know, this is all, you know, just totally,
it'll apocalyptically destroy our potential to create the technology.
It'll kill innovation.
And then as soon as they see the first real danger,
which I've been expecting all along,
there's all this talk of like nationalization,
and the government should just seize it.
Come on, folks here, you're yo-yoing from like the most extreme anti-regulatory,
you know, if you look at us the wrong way,
you're destroying the industry to, you know,
this completely communist, the government should grab it all.
We need a more sensible, moderate approach.
That's the one we've been favoring all along because we've understood the power of this technology.
We're not panicking.
We're not denying it.
We see the smooth exponential and we're responding to it appropriately.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 重返白宫】
════════════════════════════════════════
So how was your visit back to the White House?
You know, we always try to work together with whoever we can in government.
You know, I said we have this simple approach, like we have a set of principles.
We like follow those principles and we hope that folks on the other side are reasonable.
And, you know, honestly, the government has taken Mythos very seriously.
Like we've had good conversations with Secretary Besant, with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
I think they really understand, you know, the nature of the risks here.
Mythos has, I think, you know, helped them to feel much more concretely where these risks are.
So, you know, again, as with any administration, there are parts who we get along with very well and who understand it.
And, you know, there are other parts that are harder to get along with.
I think that's normal.
That would be the case in any administration.
And we just try to navigate it as best we can.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 中国开源威胁】
════════════════════════════════════════
You worked at Baidu earlier in your career, a big Chinese tech company.
You worked at the Silicon Valley outpost of it.
And you've been clear on your views on China.
Strong open source models are coming out of China.
And you have U.S. companies building on them for free.
Is that a threat?
So, you know, one of the things we've seen with this technology is that there's really a premium to how intelligent the models are.
We very, very rarely see that people would prefer to use models with lower intelligence.
Now, to be clear, there's a thriving ecosystem.
There are lots of challenges and problems that are much easier than, you know, the ones we need frontier models for.
But, again, it's an exponential, right?
Like, it's possible that, like, these far-from-frontier models have economic value comparable to what we saw in 2023 and 2024.
But, again, we have this 10x a year growth.
And so what we find is that what's on the frontier is always much, much larger than what is away from the frontier.
I think this is something that people who are used to building products in the previous era don't quite understand, right?
As someone who's come in who, you know, hasn't run a company before, who's like, you know, has never thought about the previous product era, particularly detests the social media era, I feel like an outsider to that world.
And I feel that people's instincts are wrong.
They have all these kind of product heuristics.
And I think the 10x per year model exponential really breaks that.
Like, intelligence is just such a huge factor that it outweighs everything else.
And so we're just seeing over and over again that, you know, the value is found on the frontier.
Now, what I do worry about with some of these laggard models is the risks of them, where we have mythos-class cyber capabilities.
Twelve months from now, we'll have much better cyber capabilities.
But the mythos-class cyber capabilities may just be available for anyone to download.
Now, hopefully, we'll have patched everything before then.
I don't think there's anything we can do to stop it.
But I think it's a serious concern.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 百度经历】
════════════════════════════════════════
Did what you saw at Baidu shape your views on China?
Not really, no.
No.
I worked there for a year.
You know, I think I probably learned more about, like, speech recognition and, you know, all of that.
Maybe the only thing that concerned me was, you know, part of how we got all the speech recognition data was, you know, they're like, they said ominously,
oh, we don't care about privacy in China.
So we have all this speech recognition data.
I think we have an opportunity for AI to be a pro-democracy technology, you know, that kind of makes people freer, that delivers on the promise of equal justice for all.
Or it could go the other way.
And which way it goes depends on the actions of the AI companies.
It depends on the actions of the government.
It depends on the actions of all of us.
And so I see us as having a responsibility here.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · AI 自我改进】
════════════════════════════════════════
There's a moment that people in your field talk about where AI gets good enough to improve itself.
And then the improved version improves itself and so on.
Some of your researchers think that that moment is close.
How far away is it?
I don't think it's a moment in time.
I think it's a continuous process.
We're already seeing it in some ways where the AI is able to suggest architectures for the next AI.
You know, I would say a year ago we were seeing 10% to 15% kind of increase in total factor productivity due to AI.
Like, that's probably up to 20% or 30% now.
You know, it might be doubling.
Like, as with all things, we're on the exponential.
There's no moment where AI improves itself or runs out of control or becomes unsafe.
What we have is an accelerating exponential.
And at each point on the exponential, we have to assess, is this a time to slow down?
Is this a time to, you know, put more controls on this technology?
I think more and more of that is going to be required.
But, you know, I think the Rosetta Stone to all of this is the smooth exponential.
Again, I think there's an object lesson in the people who were against all AI regulation,
and then they saw one thing and they wanted to nationalize.
I think there's an object lesson in the people who dismissed the power of AI and then said,
oh my God, it's improving itself.
It's running out of control.
We have to shut it all down.
Yo-yoing between those extreme reactions is incredibly unhelpful as a response to this technology.
The right response, the wise response, is to say, we're not going to panic.
Our countermeasures will smoothly ratchet up with the power of the technology.
If you see someone having this kind of crazy yo-yo reaction, that's a sign that they were caught by surprise and that they're not serious.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 奥本海默】
════════════════════════════════════════
I understand one of your favorite books is the making of the atomic bomb.
That is correct.
Do you see parallels between yourself and Oppenheimer?
You know, the figure I most identified with was Leo Zillard, who, you know, was the one who first basically had the idea that there could be a kind of chain reaction.
Look, my view is we're not going to get through this with, like, larger-than-life personalities or, like, figures who try and be at the center of everything, right?
There needs to be a balance of power here, right?
There's a lot of powerful actors who have interests here.
And the only way it's going to end well for everyone is if there is some – there's basically checks and balances everywhere.
So, in some ways, I actually see Oppenheimer as a failure case, as what should not happen.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 文明崩溃概率】
════════════════════════════════════════
You've said there's roughly a 10% to 25% chance of civilizational collapse.
That is not insignificant.
Is there a scenario where it's something that Anthropik built that caused that?
I mean, I certainly hope not.
My view is that, you know, the actions that we have taken lower that probability rather than increasing it, right?
That probability comes from the, you know, the very straightforward recipe of the technology, the existence of many countries in the world, the existence of many companies within an economy, and new ones created if the void isn't filled.
Like, that's a dilemma that we're in.
We're trying to act to lower that probability.
I think we lower it a lot more than we raise it.
But, you know, the inherent property of this technology is that it's unpredictable.
And so, you know, we try to build something and test it a lot before it's released.
And then the models that are released today are not dangerous, or at least not, you know, really, I think, dangerous outside of cyber.
And then we try and iterate and learn from that.
So, there's like a zillion defense mechanisms.
You know, half of what we do within the company is try and, you know, reduce the risk as much as we can.
But, you know, it's never going to be zero.
I guess what I would say is, you know, suppose there are a bunch of, like, you know, airline companies out there, and you're like, well, I'm going to make an airline company that's safer.
It can both be the case that, you know, your airline company is 10 times safer than all the other airline companies.
But, you know, if someone comes and asks you, like, can you guarantee that your airplane will never crash?
I mean, how could you?
How could you possibly?
But if there was a 25% chance of an airplane crashing, you wouldn't get on that plane.
That's right.
25% is too high.
We're trying to make that probability much, much lower.
That is the goal.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 凭什么信任你】
════════════════════════════════════════
You are building something incredibly powerful and stand to gain enormously from it.
Why should we trust you?
My view of this is actually when any company starts out, and particularly, you know, what we've seen with the behavior of just Silicon Valley as an entity.
It's thinking over the last couple years.
I think starting from a position of distrust, you know, if you don't know anything about me, if you know anything about Anthropic, is pretty rational.
I think Silicon Valley has lost a lot of the world's trust and kind of has to re-earn it.
And the message, you know, we're trying to send is we're actually different.
And that has to be earned in things that we actually do.
You can agree or disagree, but we stood up for our values.
The thing with, you know, mythos, like it's really hampered us commercially not to put this very powerful model out.
And there are a bunch of smaller things before it.
You know, we put our money where our mouth is on, you know, China.
We cut off access to models.
We didn't have to do that.
No one told us to do that.
You know, that cost us several hundred million dollars back when several hundred million dollars was a big was a significant fraction of our revenue.
You know, the delay of Claude 2, like we have a long history of it.
We aren't perfect.
We make mistakes.
But, you know, what I would ask is for people to look at the overall history and say, if you add up that overall history, what is the hypothesis about us that is most consistent with that overall history?
People have to decide for themselves.
But I think the hypothesis that's consistent is we are genuinely trying to do the right thing.
We're imperfect.
Organizations are, you know, always dysfunctional.
We're always trying to, you know, fix them and make them work better.
Many foot faults, many things that go wrong.
But at basis, we have an honest and earnest picture of how to do the right thing.
And we're trying to execute on that picture.
We will see you on the other side of the exponential then.
Hopefully.

════════════════════════════════════════
【问 · 彩蛋：好莱坞梦】
════════════════════════════════════════
You always wanted to be a Hollywood star, right?
Right.
That's one surprising thing that I didn't understand about the CEO job is how often you have to wear makeup.
So that was not on my bingo card.
Just a little powder.</pre>

</details>
